KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
- The December Euro FX went along with the recent bullish momentum the market has accumulated over the past month on Tuesday as it confirmed a ST bottom and closed back above the 1.30 mark.
- With expectations that FOMC will announce additional easing measures that should suppress the dollar’s value, the euro should rise to crack the highs of the last few months and challenge the 2012 highs early in the new year.
- Projected Daily Range: .0082
- Projected Weekly Range: .0219
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/12 @ 1729.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- Inside VRCB generated on Tuesday.
- February Gold traded within an extremely thin range on Tuesday to pare some of Monday’s gains and put a halt to the recent three-day rally due to fiscal cliff concerns and investor uncertainty.
- Look for Gold to resume its bullish momentum on Wednesday and track down last week’s high of $1,724.90 before going after the weekly upside target of $1,746.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1434.25.
- The December S&Ps logged their best one day advance in three weeks on Tuesday as they broke through the recent resistance at 1425 and the November highs at 1430.50 to close at their highest level since Oct. 18.
- This technical violation opens the door for the S&Ps to trade up to 1452 but will require some fundamental help from the piles of economic data to be released this week along with the extension of easing measures from the FOMC meeting.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 109.14. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/05/12 @ 108.81. Downside Targets = 107.17 – 106.65.
- February Brent Crude traded mostly higher on Tuesday albeit within the same trading range as Monday but closed at its highest price in four sessions after once again bouncing off the daily SBB.
- The recent support that has been priced into the market at $106 should propel Brent up to new highs for the week and possibly track down the December highs at $111.38.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.63
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.73
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.26. Downside Targets = 85.59 – 85.16.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 85.21.
- January WTI Crude Oil erased earlier losses on Tuesday to log a modest gain on the day and close back near the day’s mid-range after finding solid support just above $85 and the November lows.
- After nearly generating the second VRCB in three trading days on Tuesday, technical signs point to this market running out of sellers again and should receive a pop back to the upper end of the recent trading bands near $90.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.68
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 3.391.
- January Natural Gas continued to move lower on Tuesday, trading through $3.40 and impacting the steadily declining SBB for the second consecutive day before consolidating losses and settling in the lower 20% of the day’s trading range.
- While natural gas continues to mount losses, this market has found some value buyers over the last few sessions between $3.39–$3.41 and if sellers lose momentum, this market is due for a large move higher back above $3.80 in the coming weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .124
- Projected Weekly Range: .287
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
