Euro sets up to challenge 2012 highs

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 12/12/2012

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 109.14. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/05/12 @ 108.81. Downside Targets = 107.17 – 106.65.
  • February Brent Crude traded mostly higher on Tuesday albeit within the same trading range as Monday but closed at its highest price in four sessions after once again bouncing off the daily SBB.
  • The recent support that has been priced into the market at $106 should propel Brent up to new highs for the week and possibly track down the December highs at $111.38.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.63
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.73
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.03

WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.26. Downside Targets = 85.59 – 85.16.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 85.21.
  • January WTI Crude Oil erased earlier losses on Tuesday to log a modest gain on the day and close back near the day’s mid-range after finding solid support just above $85 and the November lows.
  • After nearly generating the second VRCB in three trading days on Tuesday, technical signs point to this market running out of sellers again and should receive a pop back to the upper end of the recent trading bands near $90.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.68
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.74

Natural Gas (January ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 3.391.
  • January Natural Gas continued to move lower on Tuesday, trading through $3.40 and impacting the steadily declining SBB for the second consecutive day before consolidating losses and settling in the lower 20% of the day’s trading range.
  • While natural gas continues to mount losses, this market has found some value buyers over the last few sessions between $3.39–$3.41 and if sellers lose momentum, this market is due for a large move higher back above $3.80 in the coming weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: .124
  • Projected Weekly Range: .287
  • Projected Monthly Range: .557
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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