KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 109.14. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/05/12 @ 108.81. Downside Targets = 107.17 – 106.65.
- February Brent Crude was unable to sustain its early gains on Monday, dropping to make new lows in the second half of trading and setting up for a continued fall through last week’s low.
- While Brent is currently trading at prices that have offered previous support above $105, the current price action indicates that the market may drop below the $105 point to test the resilience of bulls before moving back near the $110 level this market has been stuck at for four months.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.76
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.73
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.26. Downside Targets = 85.59 – 85.16.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 85.33.
- January WTI Crude Oil broke lower in afternoon trading on Monday to violate the lows of the previous three weeks before stopping just above $85 and closing off the day’s low.
- The crude complex has been stuck in a very narrow trading range over the last six weeks and until this market can close outside of the $85-$90 bands it will be relegated to a trader’s market.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.72
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 3.415.
- January Natural Gas gapped lower on Monday and continued to remain under pressure throughout the day as traders expect a less than stellar storage report and gunned massive stops below $3.50.
- The market will most likely remain under pressure until Thursday’s report and possibly consolidate losses to hover around $3.40 where the four month support price remains in this market.
- Projected Daily Range: .128
- Projected Weekly Range: .287
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/12 @ 1729.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- C > High of the Low Bar generated on Monday.
- February Gold moved back to the upside on Monday and to within just $6 of last week’s high as investors moved into the metal ahead of the FOMC meeting in hopes of a new stimulus easing package.
- Uncertainty regarding the U.S. fiscal cliff added to investor concerns and with the impending resignation of the Italian Prime Minister, gold should be able to continue the bullish momentum and target $1,741.80.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/19/12 @ 1.2811. Upside Targets = 1.3117 – 1.3177.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
- The December Euro FX traded out to the side in a very narrow trading range on Monday as the market digested both the possibility of further US economic easing from the Fed and the resignation of the Italian PM.
- While there is still an 82% chance of Friday’ low being violated before closing above its high, the recent bullish trend may outweigh the law of probabilities and take this market back higher to retest the recent highs above 1.31.
- Projected Daily Range: .0098
- Projected Weekly Range: .0219
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 1401.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- Inside compression day generated on Monday.
- The December S&Ps edged higher on Monday on the heels of some optimism over the U.S. fiscal cliff and a weaker USD in a thin and choppy trading session.
- The market has been reluctant to move through the 1420 market recently and traders should expect some more sideways price action throughout the course of this week until after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting for guidance on additional economic stimulus.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
