Natural gas falls as traders pessimistic about storage report

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 12/11/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/12 @ 1729.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • C > High of the Low Bar generated on Monday.
  • February Gold moved back to the upside on Monday and to within just $6 of last week’s high as investors moved into the metal ahead of the FOMC meeting in hopes of a new stimulus easing package.
  • Uncertainty regarding the U.S. fiscal cliff added to investor concerns and with the impending resignation of the Italian Prime Minister, gold should be able to continue the bullish momentum and target $1,741.80.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/19/12 @ 1.2811. Upside Targets = 1.3117 – 1.3177.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
  • The December Euro FX traded out to the side in a very narrow trading range on Monday as the market digested both the possibility of further US economic easing from the Fed and the resignation of the Italian PM.
  • While there is still an 82% chance of Friday’ low being violated before closing above its high, the recent bullish trend may outweigh the law of probabilities and take this market back higher to retest the recent highs above 1.31.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0098
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0219
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 1401.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
  • Inside compression day generated on Monday.
  • The December S&Ps edged higher on Monday on the heels of some optimism over the U.S. fiscal cliff and a weaker USD in a thin and choppy trading session.
  • The market has been reluctant to move through the 1420 market recently and traders should expect some more sideways price action throughout the course of this week until after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting for guidance on additional economic stimulus.
  • Projected Daily Range: 11.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 37.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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