KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 109.14. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/05/12 @ 108.81. Downside Targets = 107.17 – 106.65.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 106.63. Downside Targets over 100% achieved.
- January Brent Crude dropped lower on Thursday to trade just 2 ticks through the ST downside objective listed in Wednesday evening’s report before stopping at the daily SBB after its largest drop in a month.
- After Brent failed to rally back to $110 on Thursday, look for more support to come in again at the daily SBB as all eyes turn to the US employment situation report early Friday morning.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.08
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.89
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.26. Downside Targets = 85.59 – 85.16.
- Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 86.26.
- January WTI Crude Oil logged its largest decline of the week on Thursday as the oil complex suffered a damaging blow as the ECB growth outlook was pessimistic pointing to a possible demand drop-off.
- Oil was able to rally a little bit off of its lows going into the close as a better than expected jobless number on Thursday has speculators hoping for an upbeat employment report Friday morning that could help push the market back near the weekly mid-range.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.92
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.36
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- January Natural Gas was unable to sustain the early morning rally after a bullish storage number that pushed the market to the first resistance point of $3.75 as the market dropped back lower to close in the lower 40% of the daily trading range.
- Thursday’s weak close indicates that natural gas will most likely drop lower early into next week and retest Wednesday’s OVB low support zone at $3.51 – $3.55 before making a move back to the upside.
- Projected Daily Range: .144
- Projected Weekly Range: .317
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/12 @ 1729.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- February Gold was unable to close above Wednesday’s high as last night’s report projected but it did find plenty of support below $1,690 and rallied to close back above $1,700 just off the session’s highs.
- If gold can sustain this kind of bullish price action heading into next week, the upside target of $1,743 listed in Wednesday evening’s report should trade within the next 4 sessions as gold confirms a ST trend reversing higher low.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/19/12 @ 1.2811. Upside Targets = 1.3117 – 1.3177.
- Bearish ERVB generated on Thursday.
- The December Euro FX dropped significantly lower on the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged and painted a grim outlook for a possible shrinking Eurozone economy.
- The downside target that was mentioned in last night’s report of 1.2938 that was supposed to take 4-6 days to trade was nearly fulfilled in Thursday’s session alone, highlighting that the market was oversold on Thursday and should see a pop back higher on Friday with a positive US employment report.
- Projected Daily Range: .0090
- Projected Weekly Range: .0182
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 1401.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- Inside VRCB generated on Thursday.
- The December S&Ps traded within another thin session on Thursday as market volatility continues to be stuck in a day-on, day-off routine but did close at its highest level all week.
- The S&Ps may look to take another shot at this week’s high on Friday with any positive economic data as the market struggles between both domestic and global fiscal uncertainties.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
