Natural gas exhibiting weakness after storage report

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 12/07/2012


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 109.14. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/05/12 @ 108.81. Downside Targets = 107.17 – 106.65.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 106.63. Downside Targets over 100% achieved.
  • January Brent Crude dropped lower on Thursday to trade just 2 ticks through the ST downside objective listed in Wednesday evening’s report before stopping at the daily SBB after its largest drop in a month.
  • After Brent failed to rally back to $110 on Thursday, look for more support to come in again at the daily SBB as all eyes turn to the US employment situation report early Friday morning.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.08
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.89
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.03

WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.26. Downside Targets = 85.59 – 85.16.
  • Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 86.26.
  • January WTI Crude Oil logged its largest decline of the week on Thursday as the oil complex suffered a damaging blow as the ECB growth outlook was pessimistic pointing to a possible demand drop-off.
  • Oil was able to rally a little bit off of its lows going into the close as a better than expected jobless number on Thursday has speculators hoping for an upbeat employment report Friday morning that could help push the market back near the weekly mid-range.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.92
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.36
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.74

Natural Gas (January ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
  • January Natural Gas was unable to sustain the early morning rally after a bullish storage number that pushed the market to the first resistance point of $3.75 as the market dropped back lower to close in the lower 40% of the daily trading range.
  • Thursday’s weak close indicates that natural gas will most likely drop lower early into next week and retest Wednesday’s OVB low support zone at $3.51 – $3.55 before making a move back to the upside.
  • Projected Daily Range: .144
  • Projected Weekly Range: .317
  • Projected Monthly Range: .557

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