KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/12 @ 1729.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1686.00. Downside Targets 110% achieved.
- February Gold continued lower on Wednesday but was able to find some solid support within the range of the low day of the last three months (11/5/12) and settle back near the daily SBB.
- Gold should make a strong move back higher on Thursday to close back above Wednesday’s high and make a run over the coming weeks to $1,743.60.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/19/12 @ 1.2811. Upside Targets = 1.3117 – 1.3177.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1.3130. Initial Upside Target over 110% achieved.
- The December Euro FX logged its first losing day in over a week on Wednesday as the market fell just short of breaking through the October highs and daily RBB to settle back in the lower 30% of the day’s trading range.
- The possible correction that the euro may see should be limited to a 4-6 day move that does not drop below 1.2938 before buyers return to market and chase down the 2012 highs.
- Projected Daily Range: .0073
- Projected Weekly Range: .0182
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 1401.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- OVB generated on Wednesday. Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1401.25.
- The December S&Ps finally cracked the 1400 floor in the market on Wednesday but came firing back no sooner than that level had been breached as the market remains very volatile as projected in this Monday’s report.
- While the S&Ps have failed to close below 1400 in six sessions, this market has yet to find the necessary strength indicative of a sustainable rally that would propel the S&P’s above the November highs and still carries a high level of risk for a technical breakdown.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 109.14. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/05/12 @ 108.81. Downside Targets = 107.17 – 106.65.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 109.14. Confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 108.81.
- January Brent Crude continued its descent lower on Wednesday for its third straight day of losses as it nears last week’s low and the possibility of a weekly OVB @ 108.44.
- With the daily rate of change rolling from bearish to bullish as it approaches intraweek oversold levels, look for Brent to make a move back higher on Thursday to close near $110.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.81
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.89
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 87.86. Upside Targets = 88.99 – 89.89.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 87.56.
- January WTI Crude Oil was resigned to the same fate as Brent again on Wednesday, closing below the short-term support price of $88 despite a draw in crude inventories.
- WTI has dropped into the upper echelon of the IT consolidation base that has been built over the past six weeks and even though this week has exuded nothing but bearish price action, the floor in the WTI market is squarely pegged at $86.47.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.62
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.36
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- Bullish EROVB generated on Wednesday after making new lows on current move @ 3.507.
- January Natural Gas exploded higher on Wednesday after finding incredible support just above $3.50 to generate an outside day to the previous three trading sessions.
- After finding such strong support on Wednesday, natural gas will most likely have a small overnight setback before resuming its upward momentum before the storage report and with any kind of significant withdrawal, this market should trade the entire projected weekly trading range to the upside and target $3.824 by Friday.
- Projected Daily Range: .138
- Projected Weekly Range: .317
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
