Euro gaining momentum, may challenge 2012 highs

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 12/05/2012

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/30/12 @ 111.31. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 109.11. Upside Targets = 110.78 – 112.12.
  • Close < Low of High Day generated on Tuesday.
  • January Brent Crude followed through on Monday’s divergent price action before finding a little support above $109 and trading back up near $110 and settling below the daily mid-range.
  • Unless Brent is able to sustain some of the late day momentum, this market could come under additional pressure and retest last week’s low of 108.44 before any additional support can be found.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.53
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.89
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.03

WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/30/12 @ 86.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 87.86. Upside Targets = 88.99 – 89.89.
  • Close < Low of High Day generated on Tuesday.
  • January WTI Crude Oil also dropped lower on Tuesday but found a lot of support just below yesterday’s price of 88.04 as the market was able to rally back and close above the day’s mid-range pointing to a possible pop in prices on Wednesday.
  • Look for an initial setback on Wednesday once again to the $88 mark and then make a move higher above Tuesday’s high and once again threaten the $90 threshold.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.36
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.74

Natural Gas (January ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 3.525.
  • January Natural Gas was unable to sustain the rally in prices from Monday as it generated new lows on the current move by a single tick while once again approaching the daily SBB and the psychological support price of $3.50.
  • Natural gas has traded virtually sideways to lower since the second half of last Friday in a 10 cent trading range and while support is clearly defined at $3.50, a trade back above $3.60 on Wednesday could help push the market higher from the current oversold position.
  • Projected Daily Range: .114
  • Projected Weekly Range: .317
  • Projected Monthly Range: .557


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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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