KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/30/12 @ 111.31. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 109.11. Upside Targets = 110.78 – 112.12.
- New highs made on current move Monday @112.33. Upside Targets over 100% achieved
- January Brent Crude moved significantly higher in early trading on Monday as it broke through the November highs (112.20) before settling back just off the session’s lows.
- Brent has traded sideways between effectively $105-$112 since the sharp breakdown in prices in the middle of September and without closing above $114 with a wide range and strong daily close, the back and forth price action within these price parameters are likely to continue for the coming weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.56
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.89
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/30/12 @ 86.70. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 87.86. Upside Targets = 88.99 – 89.89.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 90.33. Upside Targets over 120% achieved
- January WTI Crude Oil was maligned to the same fate as Brent on Monday as it made new five week highs but was unable to sustain the gains as it closed in the lower 20% of the day’s trading range.
- WTI’s price action on Monday points to a lower opening and low on Tuesday but current ST support lies just below at $88.04 and should prop the market from those levels this week.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.78
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.36
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 3.526.
- January Natural Gas initially gapped lower in Monday’s overnight session before rallying back strongly throughout the trading session to close in the upper 60% of the day’s trading range as investors saw value in the market after twice penetrating the daily SBB.
- Natural gas is trading at an extreme discount at current levels and should receive another round of follow-through buying on Tuesday as a precursor to an expected draw in inventories and rally as high as $3.70 by day’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: .143
- Projected Weekly Range: .317
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/12 @ 1729.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- Inside compression day generated on Monday.
- February Gold gapped higher on Monday in what turned out to be a thin trading session from last Friday’s settlement but was unable to sustain the early session momentum as the market last traded in the lower 30% of the day’s trading range.
- Gold has seen very volatile trading throughout the fiscal cliff talks and should continue the backing and filling price action over the coming weeks and ultimately make a serious retest of $1,700 before resuming any rally.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/19/12 @ 1.2811. Upside Targets = 1.3117 – 1.3177.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1.3078. STR3MO over 145% achieved.
- The December Euro FX finally broke through to close above the previous top of 1.3027 on Monday as it violated the November highs and closed just inside the daily RBB.
- The euro has traded over 400 points higher in the past month after trading through my Q4 downside price objective by nine ticks and should be nearing some IT resistance that will result in a ST correction before moving higher towards 1.35 in the next few months.
- Projected Daily Range: .0075
- Projected Weekly Range: .0182
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- Bearish VRCB-OVB combo generated on Monday after making new highs on the current move @ 1424.00.
- The December S&Ps traded just four points through the upside resistance price of 1420 mentioned in last Thursday’s evening report before melting down to trade all the way down to last Thursday’s low.
- While this formation is typically indicative of a major pivot point in the market, recent volatility and price action suggests that the correction may be short lived and traders need to be nimble and expect a higher low when the market does bottom.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
