Natural gas trading at discount ahead of inventory reports

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 12/04/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/12 @ 1729.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • Inside compression day generated on Monday.
  • February Gold gapped higher on Monday in what turned out to be a thin trading session from last Friday’s settlement but was unable to sustain the early session momentum as the market last traded in the lower 30% of the day’s trading range.
  • Gold has seen very volatile trading throughout the fiscal cliff talks and should continue the backing and filling price action over the coming weeks and ultimately make a serious retest of $1,700 before resuming any rally.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/19/12 @ 1.2811. Upside Targets = 1.3117 – 1.3177.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 1.3078. STR3MO over 145% achieved.
  • The December Euro FX finally broke through to close above the previous top of 1.3027 on Monday as it violated the November highs and closed just inside the daily RBB.
  • The euro has traded over 400 points higher in the past month after trading through my Q4 downside price objective by nine ticks and should be nearing some IT resistance that will result in a ST correction before moving higher towards 1.35 in the next few months.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0075
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0182
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
  • Bearish VRCB-OVB combo generated on Monday after making new highs on the current move @ 1424.00.
  • The December S&Ps traded just four points through the upside resistance price of 1420 mentioned in last Thursday’s evening report before melting down to trade all the way down to last Thursday’s low.
  • While this formation is typically indicative of a major pivot point in the market, recent volatility and price action suggests that the correction may be short lived and traders need to be nimble and expect a higher low when the market does bottom.
  • Projected Daily Range: 14.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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