U.S. stocks are hovering around unchanged this morning as the monthly ISM report came out much below expectations (49.5 from 51.7 last month). However, Chinese manufacturing data added to signs of the global economic recovery and Greece made a debt buyback offer. A Chinese manufacturing gauge rose to a seven-month high in November, relieving investors’ worries of a Chinese slowdown. Greece offered €10 billion ($13 billion) to buy back bonds issued earlier this year.
Overall, U.S. equity indexes have been fairly strong since the Obama election sell-off. We are holding to a key pivot level of 1420-1430. The DEC12 E-mini S&P 500 rallied up to 1424 this morning, and sold off 10 points as the ISM data was released. As has been the theme recently, we do not foresee a rally to new highs until there is a deal struck on the fiscal cliff.
Major global commodities are unhinged from U.S. stocks today. Sugar is leading the way, up a shade over 2%. Oats are in second place today on the commodities board, up 2.06%. Silver is having a nice morning for itself, up 45 cents, or 1.36%. Crude oil futures also touched above the $90 level this morning, trading up around 1.16%. Natural gas futures are also up slightly over 1%.
Today we focus on the E-mini Dow Jones contract (DEC12). The Dow is nearing our key pivot level of 13,100. It has had a very nice rally since the Obama selloff, when it touched below 12,500. We believe 13,100 will be a key line in the sand for this market. If the Dow can hold above 13,100, we look for another rally to yearly highs. Disclaimer: Mind the Fiscal Cliff!
The next key upside level is 13,500. This will be major resistance for the Dow at this point. With that said our technical upside target for a sustained rally above our 13,100 pivot is 14,200. From June to September, the Dow rallied approximately 1,700 points. If the Down rallies another 1,700 points from its Obama election low, we get a target or level of 14,200.
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