Will corn hit $10 in 2013?

Market Pulse: November 27

Fundamentals

So what about last week? Looking at the weekly chart, you can see that in the week of Nov. 22, 2010 a low was hit at $5.06¼. On the first trading day of 2011 we saw corn open at $6.26¼. That was a move of $1.20 or $6,000 per contract. Now in the week of Nov. 21, we saw a low of $5.80¼ and on the first trading day of 2012 corn opened at $6.62, not as big as the move in 2010, but still good for $4,000 per contract. This past week we saw a low of $7.26¼, which is much higher than the past two years.

So, where will corn open on the first trading day of 2013? Could we see an open close to or above $8.00? We will have to see what WASDE says on Dec. 11. We will want to watch plantings in South America and of course their growing season. We also will want to keep an eye on U.S. exports, especially to China. And remember the recent drop we saw in corn was caused by harvest pressure, which has now subsided.

So if we see a bullish WASDE in the second week of January 2013 and issues with the South American growing season, corn does not have that much further to go to hit $10, or to get close. This would be an all-time high in corn. And one other item, if the U.S. dollar starts to weaken, that will help bring up corn prices. Of course, if the U.S. dollar strengthens, that will put pressure on corn prices. So stay tuned into corn’s price action. We will have to see where corn opens 2013. 

Have a prosperous trading week.

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