Stock market rallies, approaches near-term overbought condition

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis

Conclusion

Short-term gains since the November 16 intraday lows (1343.35—S&P 500) will ultimately determine the staying power of the larger Intermediate Cycle that is currently negative. If it turns out strength over the past several days is merely a countertrend bounce in an otherwise negative larger trend, then we would expect prices to begin failing on the upside within the next several sessions. Renewed selling could then develop and a possible test of the recent lows could follow.

If, however, the market has a greater store of resilience on the Major Cycle that has been in an uptrend since the lows of March 2009, short-term buying would continue, 10-Week Prices Channels would be exceeded on the upside as Intermediate Cycle “Oversold” conditions would take on greater importance, and the September 14 intermediate high at 1474.51 in the S&P 500 would be exceeded. In that latter instance, nothing but strength to new highs would re-affirm the 3 1/2 year-old bull trend.

MAAD Daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL data for past 30 Days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

10-10-12

4

15

10-10-12

15397

37527

10-11-12

12

7

10-11-12

9410

38706

10-12-12

5

15

10-12-12

12705

33183

10-15-12

13

7

10-15-12

15270

13445

10-16-12

12

6

10-16-12

29103

14115

10-17-12

13

6

10-17-12

29383

12501

10-18-12

7

13

10-18-12

14859

16038

10-19-12

1

19

10-19-12

23597

90225

10-22-12

13

6

10-22-12

78768

44349

10-23-12

4

16

10-23-12

19405

40598

10-24-12

5

14

10-24-12

13195

28399

10-25-12

11

8

10-25-12

18594

32595

10-26-12

5

14

10-26-12

15436

20380

10-29-12

Closed

---

10-29-12

Closed

---

10-30-12

Closed

---

10-30-12

Closed

---

10-31-12

9

10

10-31-12

9884

11891

11-1-12

17

3

11-1-12

86326

16444

11-2-12

5

14

11-2-12

12443

26349

11-5-12

14

5

11-5-12

11722

14660

11-6-12

12

7

11-6-12

45048

15298

11-7-12

0

20

11-7-12

20788

52029

11-8-12

3

17

11-8-12

16602

92193

11-9-12

11

9

11-9-12

25606

54375

11-12-12

13

7

11-12-12

8515

54791

11-13-12

6

13

11-13-12

23074

65737

11-14-12

3

17

11-14-12

16161

95621

11-15-12

11

9

11-15-12

46018

81180

11-16-12

15

5

11-16-12

40162

46466

11-19-12

19

1

11-19-12

38924

21109

11-20-12

13

7

11-20-12

21081

21565

11-21-12

15

4

11-21-12

9525

8770

11-22-12

Holiday

---

11-22-12

Holiday

---

11-23-12

19

1

11-23-12

29866

8250

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

5-4-12

1

18

5-4-12

55698

270290

5-11-12

5

15

5-11-12

89392

179817

5-18-12

1

19

5-18-12

63126

601766

5-25-12

12

8

5-25-12

128890

104849

6-1-12

0

20

6-1-12

44478

278761

6-8-12

19

1

6-8-12

206062

57765

6-15-12

17

3

6-15-12

224947

79354

6-22-12

11

9

6-22-12

41604

118995

6-29-12

11

9

6-29-12

215980

45870

7-6-12

9

11

7-6-12

22987

66734

7-13-12

7

13

7-13-12

115325

165598

7-20-12

11

9

7-20-12

155286

106164

7-27-12

15

5

7-27-12

469554

55021

8-3-12

14

4

8-3-12

189964

56326

8-10-12

18

2

8-10-12

127913

51441

8-17-12

11

9

8-17-12

168381

34193

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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