Markets offer clues to fiscal cliff salvation

Fibonacci Forecaster Weekend Review & Preview

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Happy holidays to all. It really is the time of year to thankful for your blessings. In my case, I celebrated my 25th wedding anniversary on Thanksgiving. I’m sure there are lots of ingredients to a good marriage, but we don’t hold grudges. Our fights are legendary, but when it’s over, it’s over. I have a great wife who is my best friend. On another note, I’ve recently had a spiritual healing of asthma where I’ve been on an inhaler 3 times a day for about 25 years. Folks, I haven’t used an inhaler now in about 35 days. It’s a gift from God. which is an incredible story on its own merit. Perhaps one of these days I’ll figure out a way to really incorporate it into our market work.

There’s one more thing. Some of you might have heard about the rocket attack in a little suburb of Tel-Aviv called Rishon last Tuesday. One rocket hit one apartment building. It’s not like a whole area got smashed, as I understand the iron dome did a great job. I saw it on the news and said, “Nah, it couldn’t be.” What are the chances when about 20 buildings look exactly the same? It was my father’s building. That’s right. My father’s building got shelled by a Hamas rocket. He wasn’t home at the time and his unit is okay but now the government of Israel is paying for him to live in a hotel for the time being. Another gift from God? You can look at it that way. So there’s lots to be thankful for this year.

So if I can experience a miracle, so can the government. If you watch the media, they are still trying to scare folks into what they think is going to happen if the fiscal cliff isn’t resolved. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I do think they’ll get a deal. Not only that, but I think they get it soon. The market thinks they are going to get it because it’s been up since the love fest a week ago Friday. The seasonal factor kicked in early and we do have one calculation that is working in favor of this new move. Here’s the chart of the week.

market, chart, technical analysis

Here we have a range in the NASDAQ at 386 in roughly 38 trading days. That’s precisely the kind of thing we are looking for. If EVERY chart had this kind of symmetry I’d call a bottom if the VIX were a little more respectable. But to get one chart lining up its good enough to kick off the holiday season. So if you are looking for something to be grateful for this would be it. I’m not sure how much of this is short covering due to the holiday volume last week but high frequency people are buying this up but you can’t count on them to stay with it. Aside from that, the big news is the truce in Israel. So while we are on the subject of miracles let’s talk about Egypt. Who brokered the peace? It was the new leader of Egypt who did so despite opposition from his own people. He was hailed as a good guy (I’m not sure this guy will ever qualify as a hero). Which leads us into the geopolitical arena.

Next page: Bigger news out of Egypt

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