Paulson, who became a billionaire in 2007 by wagering against the subprime mortgage market, owns 21.8 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, making him the biggest shareholder, a Nov. 15 SEC filing showed. The 56-year-old raised his stake by 26 percent in the second quarter and his holding of about 66 tons exceeds the official reserves of nations from Brazil to Bulgaria to Bolivia.
The New York-based hedge fund company reduced its investments in Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. and Gold Fields Ltd., the third- and fourth-biggest producers. Armel Leslie of Walek & Associates, a spokesman for Paulson’s fund, declined to comment.
Paul Touradji’s Touradji Capital Management LP sold all of its 82,000 shares in the SPDR Gold Trust in the third quarter, according to an SEC filing. Lone Pine Capital LLC, the hedge fund run by Stephen Mandel Jr., cut its stake by 31 percent to 2.6 million shares, and Dan Loeb’s Third Point LLC lowered its bet by 10 percent to 130,000 shares, filings showed last week. Officials from all three companies declined to comment.
While some investors expect stimulus to devalue currencies, the median of nine strategist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show the U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against six major trading partners, will average 82.8 next year, from 80.9 now. Steven Englander, Citigroup Inc.’s head of G-10 strategy, said in an interview this month that the currency market is signaling it isn’t yet convinced the Federal Reserve will fulfill its pledge to pump record amounts of cash into the economy through 2015.
Third-quarter demand for gold fell 11 percent, the most since 2009, as China’s slowing growth curbed purchases, the London-based World Gold Council said Nov. 15. India, the biggest buyer in the quarter, consumed 24 percent less in the year’s first nine months as bullion priced in rupees reached a record in September. The Washington-based International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 forecast for world growth twice since July, to 3.6 percent.
While prices rose 25 percent since November 2010, the size of the futures market, based on contracts outstanding, fell 30 percent, bourse data show. The metal, down 3.6 percent from this year’s high, has yet to exceed previous records when adjusted for inflation, with its 1980 record of $850 equal to $2,398 today, data compiled by the Fed Bank of Minneapolis show.
Hedge funds and other large speculators pared bets on a rally in futures traded on the Comex bourse in New York by 29 percent since Oct. 9, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They’re still holding a net-long position of 140,162 futures and options, about 10 percent more than this year’s average, and increased wagers by 7.7 percent last week.
The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The European Central Bank said it’s ready to buy bonds of indebted nations and the Bank of Japan raised its asset-purchase program for the second time in two months on Oct. 30.