Trend from the first bar bull, higher high major trend reversal, trend resumption bull

• Monday, November 19, 2012
• Bar 1 - Yesterday was a major buy or long signal since it was a fail, failure bear breakout of 60 minimum or minutes bear channel. Big gap so odds favor trend, up more likely than down, but far from moving average so probably mostly sideways for 5 & 10 bars. Ok swing buy or long for possible low of the day, ok to wait. Maybe 60% chance of close of day above open of day
• Bar 2 - Good follow through but far from moving average so sideways most likely
• Bar 3 - Bear reversal bar, close on low but 2 bars up so always in long and buyers below. Wait
• Bar 4 - Bull inside bar, breakout pullback buy or long but sideways most likely. Ok swing, maybe ok scalp
• Bar 7 - One bar final flag 4, but tail below. Wait
• Bar 9 - Bull inside bar so fail, failure bear breakout. Ok swing buy or long but far from moving average so sideways most likely
• Bar 11 - Double top 7, strong bear bar, but not enough bars for credible major trend reversal top, and tight trading range so better to only look to buy or long
• Bar 13 - Dbpb buy or long, possible triangle 3, 8, but doji signal bar. Since always in long, ok swing buy or long
• Bar 17 - Two bar revresal, fail, failure breakout double top, weak major trend reversal, and weak signal bar so buyers below. Bears see today as just 2nd leg up in large two legged pullback in a bear move yesterday 38 in 60 minimum or minutes bear
• Bar 20 - Outside bar surrounded by inside bars in bull. Ok swing buy or long. Tight trading range so not high enough probability for scalp. Tight trading range. Ok to be buy or long or sell or short for swing if go for reward 2 times risk, but probability less than 50% for either. If want higher probability, have to wait for more info27 bull inside bar, double bottom 19. Bull case stronger than bear case, always in long. Ok buy or long swing or wait for breakout above 25 or 16 where swing bears might have stops. Best choice = wait to see if breakout is strong
• Bar 31 - Bull breakout but tail and not big bar so weak breakout. Swing buy or long with stop below 28. Some might use tight stop below 31, but weak channel so lower probability. Ok to be flat since not strong breakout
• [more Bar-by-Bar Analysis, Daily Webinar and Trading Course info at www.brookspriceaction.com and www.brookstradingcourse.com]

About the Author

Al Brooks, M.D., is author of the Brooks Trading Course (27 hours of videos at BrooksTradingCourse.com), several books on Price action (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader, Wiley, 2009, and the 500,000 word, three-book series, Trading Price Action, Wiley, 2012), and numerous articles in Futures Magazine. He also provides live intraday E-mini price action analysis and free end-of-day analysis on www.brookspriceaction.com.