Gold finds solid support, turns bullish

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 11/19/2012


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/13/12 @ 1725.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/13/12 @ 1724.80. Downside Target = 1683.50.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Friday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1728.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1728.00 or higher.
  • December Gold remained virtually unchanged on Friday as it was stuck in a stagnant trading range but once again found solid support above $1,700/oz. and closed in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
  • Look for Friday’s confirmed bullish price action to extend on higher into the beginning of this week and move back above $1,730 in early trading Monday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 51.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 103.60

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2788 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX settled back lower on Friday as the USD remained strong and traded to its highest level in two months, deflating the euro as the market closed back in the lower half of the weekly trading range.
  • Friday’s close was not decisively bearish as it settled near the day’s trading range and could lend itself to a modest move back higher on Monday and possibly even confirm a Short Term bottom in the market with a close above 1.28.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0087
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0177
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0501

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1367.50 – 1344.50.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Friday after making new lows on current move @ 1340.25.
  • The December S&Ps were also able to find solid footing after congressional leaders gave a consensus address to the public signaling that they would somehow find a way to reach a deal over the fiscal cliff and were able to restore an inkling of hope to markets that were teetering on the edge of a full-fledged correction.
  • Look for some follow through buying on Monday and the market to trade up to 1370 but unless more solid details are able to be delivered in a “sooner than later” fashion by congress, any ensuing rally should still be aggressively sold against 1400 until a reversal of Short Term trends proves otherwise.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 50.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.25

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