KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 110.78 – 112.12.
- January Brent Crude made new highs for the week on Thursday before running into solid resistance below $110 as the broad risk markets sold off in the second half of the day to close in the lower 30% of the day’ range.
- Brent should be able to find solid footing above Thursday’s low and close back above $109 on Friday as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.05
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.86. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.86. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday.
- January WTI Crude Oil saw a very volatile trading session on Thursday as it made both new highs and lows for the week on the same day while closing in the lower half of the day’s trading range.
- WTI looks vulnerable to the downside and may target not only this week’s lows of $84.57 but also make new four-month lows on the way down to $83.73.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.72
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/14/2012 @ 3.776. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/2012 @ 3.724. Upside Targets = 3.821 – 3.908.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday after making new highs on current move @ 3.830.
- December Natural Gas settled back lower on Thursday in a highly volatile trading session as the storage number had traders scratching their heads for direction after the season’s first withdrawal.
- Thursday’s price action confirms that the market should head back lower as the current rally was fueled with hot money and drop back to retest the recent lows before finding an IT bottom.
- Projected Daily Range: .156
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/13/12 @ 1725.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/13/12 @ 1724.80. Downside Target = 1683.50.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1704.50.
- December Gold dropped sharply lower on Thursday for its largest single day decline in nearly two weeks as political leaders seem to be entrenched in their ways leading many investors to turn to a risk-off sentiment heading into the weekend.
- Look for gold to challenge new weekly lows before finding some Short Tem support around $1,700 on Friday.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 50.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- Possible Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2788 or higher.
- The December Euro FX found support in-line with Wednesday evening’s projection on Thursday as the market traded just four ticks through the support price and then rallied back above 1.28 to generate new highs for the week.
- After hitting key resistance levels above 1.28 on Thursday and being unable to hold a strong close, look for the technical sellers to return to the market on Friday and drop the market back near the weekly mid-range heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: .0078
- Projected Weekly Range: .0197
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1367.50 – 1344.50.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1345.25.
- The December S&Ps continued to decline lower on Thursday as investors were unable to find any support in the weak economic data released showing a substantial increase in jobless claims in partly due to Hurricane Sandy.
- While the market tried to put in a late session rally, it was unable to hold its positive gains and without productive dialogue from the President and Congress on Friday, stocks could continue their recent skid to below 1323, signaling correction territory.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
