Oil vulnerable to making four-month lows at $83.73

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 11/16/12


COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/13/12 @ 1725.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/13/12 @ 1724.80. Downside Target = 1683.50.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1704.50.
  • December Gold dropped sharply lower on Thursday for its largest single day decline in nearly two weeks as political leaders seem to be entrenched in their ways leading many investors to turn to a risk-off sentiment heading into the weekend.
  • Look for gold to challenge new weekly lows before finding some Short Tem support around $1,700 on Friday.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 50.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 103.60


Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/15/12 @ 1.2788. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
  • Possible Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2788 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX found support in-line with Wednesday evening’s projection on Thursday as the market traded just four ticks through the support price and then rallied back above 1.28 to generate new highs for the week.
  • After hitting key resistance levels above 1.28 on Thursday and being unable to hold a strong close, look for the technical sellers to return to the market on Friday and drop the market back near the weekly mid-range heading into the weekend.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0078
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0197
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0501


E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1367.50 – 1344.50.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1345.25.
  • The December S&Ps continued to decline lower on Thursday as investors were unable to find any support in the weak economic data released showing a substantial increase in jobless claims in partly due to Hurricane Sandy.
  • While the market tried to put in a late session rally, it was unable to hold its positive gains and without productive dialogue from the President and Congress on Friday, stocks could continue their recent skid to below 1323, signaling correction territory.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.00
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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