Oil vulnerable to making four-month lows at $83.73

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 11/16/12

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 110.78 – 112.12.
  • January Brent Crude made new highs for the week on Thursday before running into solid resistance below $110 as the broad risk markets sold off in the second half of the day to close in the lower 30% of the day’ range.
  • Brent should be able to find solid footing above Thursday’s low and close back above $109 on Friday as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.05
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.65

WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.86. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.86. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Thursday.
  • January WTI Crude Oil saw a very volatile trading session on Thursday as it made both new highs and lows for the week on the same day while closing in the lower half of the day’s trading range.
  • WTI looks vulnerable to the downside and may target not only this week’s lows of $84.57 but also make new four-month lows on the way down to $83.73.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.72
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.61

Natural Gas (December):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/14/2012 @ 3.776. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/2012 @ 3.724. Upside Targets = 3.821 – 3.908.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Thursday after making new highs on current move @ 3.830.
  • December Natural Gas settled back lower on Thursday in a highly volatile trading session as the storage number had traders scratching their heads for direction after the season’s first withdrawal.
  • Thursday’s price action confirms that the market should head back lower as the current rally was fueled with hot money and drop back to retest the recent lows before finding an IT bottom.
  • Projected Daily Range: .156
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

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