KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/13/12 @ 1725.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/13/12 @ 1724.80. Upside Targets = 1749.70 – 1769.10.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1734.20. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1734.20 or higher.
- December Gold was able to shake off the early week selling on Wednesday as it moved back higher in another tight trading session as the market has been unable to move decisively over the past five trading sessions.
- Look for gold to continue to work out to the side until Friday when there should be a little more clarity on how Congress and the President will work together to avoid the fiscal cliff.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 50.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2788. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2788 or higher.
- The December Euro FX traded in perfect correlation to Wednesday morning’s report as it not only generated new highs for the week but also came within seven ticks of last Friday’s OVB high before settling back near the day’s mid-range.
- Look for the euro to trade back near the 1.2725 level on Thursday where it should find some intraweek support and move back near the current weekly highs.
- Projected Daily Range: .0082
- Projected Weekly Range: .0197
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1378.25 – 1367.50.
- New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1349.50.
- The December S&Ps dropped sharply lower in late session trading on Wednesday as the political stalemate in Washington continues to leave investors hanging in the balance on possible tax increases and drastic spending cuts that could force the economy into another recession.
- The S&Ps have now dropped more than 110 points from their September high and could continue lower as previously mentioned to the Q4 downside target of 1334.75 at minimum before finding any Short Term support.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 110.78 – 112.12.
- January Brent Crude reversed course on Wednesday as it closed at its highest level in six trading sessions on the heels of an Israel air strike on Palestinian military leaders as well as weakness in the USD.
- Although Brent had a relatively strong trading session on Wednesday, it was still unable to generate new highs for the week and unless it is able to do so may toil in the range bound price zone for the next few days.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.86. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.86. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
- January WTI Crude Oil was also stronger on Wednesday as it made new highs for the week and closed at its highest price since last Tuesday as the market continues to build a base out to the side.
- WTI’s strong close indicates that the market should continue to generate new highs for the week on Thursday and go after the weekly upside objective of $88.99.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.76
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/14/12 @ 3.776. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Upside Targets = 3.821 – 3.908.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom on a close violation @ 3.776 or higher.
- December Natural Gas was able to move initially higher on Wednesday as it followed through on Tuesday explosive move higher before retracing its gains to last trade virtually unchanged on the session.
- Should natural gas follow through on Wednesday morning’s analysis that it pulls back near the $3.62–$3.65 range, traders will be best served to scale into intraday levels and isolate appropriate buy signals before the market takes off back near the $4 mark.
- Projected Daily Range: .145
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
