Gold paralyzed by fiscal uncertainty

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 11/15/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/13/12 @ 1725.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/13/12 @ 1724.80. Upside Targets = 1749.70 – 1769.10.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1734.20. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1734.20 or higher.
  • December Gold was able to shake off the early week selling on Wednesday as it moved back higher in another tight trading session as the market has been unable to move decisively over the past five trading sessions.
  • Look for gold to continue to work out to the side until Friday when there should be a little more clarity on how Congress and the President will work together to avoid the fiscal cliff.
  • Projected Daily Range: 14.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 50.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 103.60

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
  • C > HOLB (Close Above High Low Bar) generated on Wednesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2788. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.2788 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX traded in perfect correlation to Wednesday morning’s report as it not only generated new highs for the week but also came within seven ticks of last Friday’s OVB high before settling back near the day’s mid-range.
  • Look for the euro to trade back near the 1.2725 level on Thursday where it should find some intraweek support and move back near the current weekly highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0082
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0197
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0501

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1378.25 – 1367.50.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1349.50.
  • The December S&Ps dropped sharply lower in late session trading on Wednesday as the political stalemate in Washington continues to leave investors hanging in the balance on possible tax increases and drastic spending cuts that could force the economy into another recession.
  • The S&Ps have now dropped more than 110 points from their September high and could continue lower as previously mentioned to the Q4 downside target of 1334.75 at minimum before finding any Short Term support.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 48.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.25

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