KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 112.48 – 114.73.
- VRCB generated on Tuesday.
- January Brent Crude did in fact move back lower on Tuesday as projected but was able to find the crucial support needed to hold the market up from another collapse lower as the $106 price remains a line in the sand for many traders.
- Although volatility has remained low this week, look for an increase in price action on Wednesday and the market to make a move back near this week’s high.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.21
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
- December WTI Crude Oil settled modestly lower on Tuesday despite closing above its daily mid-range as it traded a mere 8 ticks below the support price listed in Tuesday mornings report before moving back higher in late session trading.
- Look for WTI to move to the upside on Wednesday and challenge the Monday highs of $86.54 initially before it makes a move to a possible weekly upside target in late week trading.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.76
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday.
- December Natural Gas exploded higher on Tuesday to its highest level in nearly two weeks and its largest single day gain in nearly five months as cooler temperatures across the country point to the season’s possible first storage withdrawal.
- Traders should look for a pullback to $3.62–$3.65 to re-enter into long positions as the market should take aim for $4.
- Projected Daily Range: .136
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/13/12 @ 1725.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/13/12 @ 1724.80. Upside Targets = 1749.70 – 1769.10.
- December Gold traded mostly lower throughout Tuesday’s session in another choppy trading session as traders pushed the market back to the mid-Bollinger Band support price as well as the topside of the consolidation zone created three weeks ago.
- With the short-term trend remaining bullish, look for Tuesday’s sell-off to be short lived and the market to challenge last week’s high to make another push towards $1,750.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 50.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1.2665. Downside Target over 120% achieved.
- The December Euro FX traded mostly lower on the session Tuesday as it violated last week’s low before managing to squeeze out a late day rally to close just a shade lower for the day.
- Look for new highs for the week to be made on Wednesday as the market found solid support at the secondary Short Term target of 1.2676 and make a move back near Friday’s OVB high.
- Projected Daily Range: .0071
- Projected Weekly Range: .0197
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1378.25 – 1367.50.
- Bearish VRCB-OVB combo generated on Tuesday.
- The December S&Ps closed at their lowest level in more than four months on Tuesday after giving up early session gains in the last hour of trading to close back in the lower 25% of the day’s trading range.
- Look for a choppy trading session on Wednesday as well as the S&Ps digest a slew of economic data reports as well as a release of the FOMC Minutes toward the end of the session.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
