KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1378.25 – 1367.50.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
- The December S&Ps put together a small gain on Monday in a thin trading session as it was able to just barely close above the day’s mid-range while failing to follow through on last week’s bearish close indicator.
- Look for the S&Ps to drop lower in Tuesday’s trading before violating last week’s low and possibly extend the losses further towards our Q4 downside objective of 1334.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 48.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1721.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1727.60. Upside Targets = 1749.70 – 1769.10.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1725.10. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1725.10 or lower.
- December Gold finished Monday’s session virtually unchanged as Friday’s VRCB trading range is setting up as a solid resistance spot in the market and could lead to a Short Term correction to retest the $1,700/oz. level with a close below Monday’s low of $1,725.20.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 50.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
- The December Euro FX remained virtually unchanged on the day in one of the narrowest trading ranges of the year due in large part to the US holiday after failing to break through Friday’s bearish OVB.
- Look for last week’s low to be violated on Tuesday and for the euro to continue its descent lower as it approaches the 1.26 level by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: .0084
- Projected Weekly Range: .0197
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 112.48 – 114.73.
- January Brent Crude gave back some of its early gains on Monday to finish in the lower 35% of the daily trading range as the spread between itself and the spot WTI contract narrowed to $22.58 after failing to break through last week’s OVB high.
- Although the technical indicators still suggest that Brent should trade through $110.69, the volatility in the market over the past week has been unpredictable at best and could move lower back near $106.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.39
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
- December WTI Crude Oil moved back slightly lower on Monday in a compressed trading range due in large part to Veterans Day as it was unable to follow through on Friday’s bullish OVB.
- Look for an early retest of $85 on Tuesday where the market finds support near $84.65 before trying to stage a rally.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.23
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 3.470.
- December Natural Gas traded one tick through the contract close gap left from the November contract before reversing course early in the session and led the market back higher near $3.60.
- While Friday’s bearish close indicator was fulfilled with the weekly low having been violated, Monday’s price action lends itself to the possibility of a bullish OVB week should natural gas trade through $3.621 and sets up the possibility of an extended run higher near the contract highs of $4.
- Projected Daily Range: .119
- Projected Weekly Range: .297
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
