Natural gas could see bump before falling lower

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 11/12/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 112.48 – 114.73.
  • December Brent Crude logged a substantial gain on Friday as it once again outpaced WTI to increase the spread back over $23 and close in the upper 70% of the weekly trading range.
  • Should Brent see an early week setback it should be able to find solid support above $107 and then make a push higher back near the recent resistance price of $116.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.76
  • Projected Weekly Range: 5.27
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.65

WTI Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
  • Bullish OVB generated on Friday.
  • December WTI Crude Oil was able to hold the weekly lows on Friday before generating an outside reversal day as it tried to close back near the weekly mid-range.
  • Friday’s solid price action could lend itself to higher prices early in the week but may ultimately find heavy resistance near last week’s “V-top” high of $89.22.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.28
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.61

Natural Gas (December):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Friday making new lows on the current move @ 3.482.
  • December Natural Gas was unable to make new highs for the week on Friday and dropped sharply lower throughout the trading session as mentioned in last Thursday evening’s report and just barely managed to settle above $3.50.
  • Natural gas should try and make an initial move slightly higher near $3.537 in early trading before falling lower to violate last week’s low and fill the contract close gap at $3.471.
  • Projected Daily Range: .113
  • Projected Weekly Range: .297
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

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