Stock market losses leave long-term uptrend in doubt

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis

In addition, Cumulative volume in the S&P 500 and S&P Emini futures contract has been in a marked downtrend since April 2010 to the extent lower highs were made in CV the week of April 15, 2010, another the week of February 18, 2011, and a final lower high September 14, 2012. Like MAAD and CPFL that have been trending lower over the past few years, despite participation in rallies when they occurred, CV too has been suggesting rallies have been increasingly fueled by weaker and weaker hands.

Daily S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

emini, cumulative

Weekly S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

emini, weekly, cumulative, volume

Which brings us up to the current time frame. Following the September 14 index prices highs, market weakness developed on the near term trend. That selling morphed into negativity on the next larger Intermediate Cycle. In the wake of that selling, our intermediate proprietary trading oscillators and Momentum measurements remain near “Neutral.” None are “Oversold.” While it is likely there will be a near-term rebound just ahead, that potential does not preclude more selling in the meantime since the next larger Intermediate Cycle continues to exert influence.

There has been damage to price charts over the past several weeks. It’s true the S&P continues to hold above a Major Cycle uptrend (1315) begun after the March 2009 price lows. The Major Cycle also remains intact to the extent S&P pricing remains above the lower edge of a 10-Month Price Channel (1277.32), but if that level is fractured on the downside, weakness would almost certainly result in a long-term negative signal.

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

11/12

11/13

11/14

11/15

11/16

11/16

11/30

S&P 500 Index

BUY 1425.15

BUY 1426.02

BUY 1426.39

BUY 1421.98

BUY 1416.37

BUY 1455.44

SELL 1277.32

Dow Jones Industrials

BUY 13221.73

BUY 13226.90

BUY 13225.35

BUY 13181.24

BUY 13127.39

BUY 13537.24

SELL 12198.68

NASDAQ Composite

BUY 3012.17

BUY 3013.64

BUY 3007.39

BUY 2996.81

BUY 2983.88

BUY 3151.29

SELL 2738.24

Value Line Index

BUY 3045.07

BUY 3054.52

BUY 3062.10

BUY 3056.69

BUY 3047.34

BUY 3101.01

SELL 2734.45

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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