Oil looks to form seasonal lows

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 11/09/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1721.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1727.60. Upside Targets = 1749.70 – 1769.10.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1735.10.
  • December Gold moved higher again on Thursday to trade at its highest level in three weeks as follow through buying continued in the wake of an expected decline in the USD and political gridlock.
  • Look for gold to extend the current move further on Friday as it tracks down the initial upside target of $1,749.70 before moving to new 2012 highs before the year is up.
  • Projected Daily Range: 21.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 41.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 103.60

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1.2721.
  • The December Euro FX moved modestly lower on Thursday as it made new lows for the week but closed back near the daily mid-range as the market finally found some slight Short Term support above 1.27.
  • Look for Friday’s session to see the euro push higher into the weekend on a short-covering rally that may see the market close above 1.28 before resuming the downward price action next week.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0093
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0218
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0501

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1378.25 – 1367.50.
  • New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1372.50.
  • The December S&Ps dropped through the 1375 level mentioned in Thursday morning’s report and closed below the daily SBB for the first time in nearly a month as the sell-off continued into the two-day and nearly 4% decline.
  • Like other risk assets, look for the S&Ps to try and make a move higher in early trading Friday before finding heavy resistance near 1390 and then dropping lower to finish the session.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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