KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 112.48 – 114.73.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 106.11. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 106.11 or lower.
- December Brent Crude generated mostly non-directional price movements throughout the session after moving back above $108 before closing just above the daily mid-range.
- Look for a move back lower on Friday and the market sells off into the weekend in another risk-off session.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.63
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
- Inside compression day generated on Thursday.
- December WTI Crude Oil moved minimally higher on Thursday in a subdued trading range as the recent increase in volatility proved unsustainable as the market closed just above the $85 mark.
- Look for WTI to make a move slightly higher on Friday before retesting the current low as the market looks to make its seasonal low soon.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.15
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.26
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
- December Natural Gas was very erratic in Thursday trading as a smaller than expected supply injection had the market running from its lows in early trading as it bounced off the daily SBB but lost steam late in the session as the $3.60 seemed once again to be unsustainable.
- Currently natural gas is on track to generate a VRCB week unless the market experiences a large increase in volatility heading into the weekend.
- Note: While today’s price action was mostly bullish, the current four-day formation has less of a bottoming structure to it than usual and the lows could be suspect to a breach.
- Projected Daily Range: .113
- Projected Weekly Range: .314
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1721.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1727.60. Upside Targets = 1749.70 – 1769.10.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1735.10.
- December Gold moved higher again on Thursday to trade at its highest level in three weeks as follow through buying continued in the wake of an expected decline in the USD and political gridlock.
- Look for gold to extend the current move further on Friday as it tracks down the initial upside target of $1,749.70 before moving to new 2012 highs before the year is up.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1.2721.
- The December Euro FX moved modestly lower on Thursday as it made new lows for the week but closed back near the daily mid-range as the market finally found some slight Short Term support above 1.27.
- Look for Friday’s session to see the euro push higher into the weekend on a short-covering rally that may see the market close above 1.28 before resuming the downward price action next week.
- Projected Daily Range: .0093
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25 Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1378.25 – 1367.50.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 1372.50.
- The December S&Ps dropped through the 1375 level mentioned in Thursday morning’s report and closed below the daily SBB for the first time in nearly a month as the sell-off continued into the two-day and nearly 4% decline.
- Like other risk assets, look for the S&Ps to try and make a move higher in early trading Friday before finding heavy resistance near 1390 and then dropping lower to finish the session.
- Projected Daily Range: 22.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
