S&P 500 cracks up-sloping trendline dating to October 2011

Stock index, chart, technical analysis

Market Overview – What We Know:

• Following through on Wednesday’s selling, major indexes lost further ground Thursday.
• Trading volume on NYSE relative to Wednesday’s activity declined 13% and Average Price per Share lost 37 cents to $59.42.
• Minor Cycle remains negative until S&P rises above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1427.54 through Friday).
• S&P pricing closed just below long-term uptrend line (last near 1380) stretching back to October 4, 2011 when S&P hit intraday low at 1074.77. At same time, S&P was threatening trailing 200-Day Moving Average.
• To reverse Intermediate Cycle to positive S&P 500 would need to rally above upper edge of 10-Week Price Channel (1451.21 through November 9).
• Major resistance and point to overcome to re-assert long-term uptrend in S&P 500 remains at 1474.51 created on September 14.
• Daily MAAD was negative Thursday with 3 issues positive and 17 negative. Indicator is now within range of early June low. Daily MAAD Ratio is in “Oversold” territory (.72).
• Daily CPFL was negative by 5.55 to 1 Thursday with Daily CPFL Ratio moving back toward “Oversold” (.81) levels.

Market Overview – What We Think:

• More selling in face of apparently “Oversold” readings simply underscores historical evidence that “Oversold” early in larger cycle decline (intermediate in this case) may not be all it seems.
• Weakness amplified developing influence of larger Intermediate Cycle that has turned negative, but that still remains moderately “Overbought.”
• With S&P prices near an uptrend line stretching back to October 2011, we could see some rebounding in the sessions just ahead on the Minor Cycle, but given recent losses and new intermediate negative, that is only a 50/50 bet.
• We continue to believe September 14 intraday highs (1454.71—S&P 500) will not be seriously challenged for foreseeable future.
• How new intermediate-term negative plays out could determine staying power of Major Cycle trend which is challenged in terms of “Overbought” conditions and lack of solid indicator underpinnings.

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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