KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 112.48 – 114.73.
- Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Wednesday after making new highs for the week @ 111.64.
- December Brent Crude sank lower in Wednesday trading as a combination of supply increases domestically because of demand depletion from Sandy compounded with pessimistic investor sentiment regarding the fiscal cliff pushed the market back near last week’s low as the market dropped more than $5.
- Brent was significantly oversold on Wednesday and should see a pop back to the upside in early trading on Thursday near $109 before resuming the downward price action heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.61
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 84.33. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.69.
- December WTI Crude Oil fell sharply lower on Wednesday as the “risk-off” trade dominated the marketplace as WTI closed at its lowest level in four months.
- Like Brent, WTI should move a shade higher in early trading on Thursday before resuming the two-month long sell-off as the market threatens the $80 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.16
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.26
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
- Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.
- December Natural Gas moved mostly lower throughout trading on Wednesday as the energy sector as a whole was dragged down on concerns over the impending U.S. fiscal cliff as well as lowered GDP expectations for Europe.
- Although natural gas was able to garner a modest two-day reprieve from the previous weeks of selling, the markets price action today along with what should be a large injection number on Thursday should suppress any bullish tendencies that exist and push this market back lower to fill to previous spreads.
- Projected Daily Range: .119
- Projected Weekly Range: .314
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1721.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1727.60. Upside Targets = 1749.70 – 1769.10.
- December Gold realized another volatile trading session on Wednesday as investors initially poured into the market on the assumption of extended QE and a lower USD but erased those gains throughout the session as the overall bearish tone dominated the floor.
- Going into the end of the year, traders should look for gold to log higher lows and higher highs as the $1,800/oz. mark goes before months end.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday making new lows on current move @ 1.2741.
- The December Euro FX shrugged off overnight gains on Wednesday as violent protests broke out in Greece during an austerity vote, marking a continued resistance to Eurozone policies as it traded to within six ticks of our initial downside objective.
- While the fundamentals behind the USD may be weaker than normal, the euro will be hard pressed to advance as opposition to the austerity packages continue in addition to lowered GDP expectations.
- Projected Daily Range: .0093
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/07/12 @ 1402.25. Downside Targets = 1378.25 – 1367.50.
- The December S&Ps dropped sharply lower on Wednesday for their worst single day loss in a year after the re-election of President Obama signaled more possible political stalemates that could lead our country over the fiscal cliff.
- With the stock market off by more than 2% on Wednesday, look for a modest increase in overnight trading and into early morning before the selling resumes and the market closes the week near 1375.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
