KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 110.27. Upside Targets = 112.48 – 114.73.
- December Brent Crude exploded higher on Tuesday because of the tensions near the Saudi/Yemen border as well as possible closure to the uncertainty hinging with the current presidential election cycle.
- Look for a move back lower tomorrow in early trading near $110 before moving back to the upside near the first upside objective.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.35
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/06/12 @ 87.43. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/06/12 @ 87.43. Upside Targets = 90.22 – 91.34.
- December WTI Crude Oil moved sharply higher on Tuesday with the rest of the risk assets as it completed a weekly OVB while moving all the way back to the mid-Bollinger Bands.
- Expect for WTI to move back higher on Wednesday before moving into heavy resistance near $91 near the week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.65
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.26
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
- Close > High of the Low Bar generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.621. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.621 or higher.
- December Natural Gas moved back to the upside on Tuesday following Monday’s reduction in volatility as it found support once again just above $3.50 and close back inside the Support Bollinger Band due to a late session rally.
- Natural gas’ strong price action should lead to a higher Wednesday and the market may approach $3.70 on its way back to the upside and the eventual test of last week’s high.
- Projected Daily Range: .117
- Projected Weekly Range: .314
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1698.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1698.60. Downside Targets = 1653.70 – 1642.60
- Bullish ERVB (Extended Range Vertical Bar) generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom @ with a range violation @ 1721.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1721.00 or higher OR a range violation @ 1727.60.
- December Gold generated sharp returns higher on Tuesday as the previous three sessions have been highly volatile while trading within a $40 range as the market appears to be setting the stage for a drastic move higher in anticipation of an Obama re-election.
- Should the incumbent return to office, expect gold to breakout to the upside and target our year end objective of $2,000+/oz. as continued money printing and QE measures roll along with an increased likelihood of the U.S. seriously approaching the fiscal cliff.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- The December Euro FX moved back higher on Tuesday to close within the range of the daily Support Bollinger Band after trading to within less than a penny of the Q4 downside objective.
- Expect the euro to move back to the upside in the short term as the USD falls on anticipation of more money printing and expected inflation.
- Projected Daily Range: .0090
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/01/12 @ 1418.50 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 1423.25. Upside Targets = 1439.25 – 1448.25.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1402.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1402.25 or lower.
- The December S&Ps moved back to the upside on Tuesday as the risk markets gained as a whole following the theme of possible political certainty and the discourse of the country just a few hours ahead of us.
- Unfortunately for bulls, with the consensus of the pundits pointing towards an Obama re-election, the stock market will most likely see a Short Term correction as business’ are disappointed and the market looks to head a shade lower to 1378 before finding some Intermediate Term support.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
