Stock market indicator setup for day after election

MAAD, CPFL indicator review

Stock index, chart, technical analysis Stock index, chart, technical analysis

 

Market Snapshot for session ending 11-6-12
 

Last

Day Change

%Change

S&P 500 Index

1428.39

+11.13

+.79%

Dow Jones Industrials

13245.68

+133.23

+1.02%

NASDAQ Composite

3011.93

+12.27

+.41%

Value Line Arithmetic Index

3085.37

+31.41

+1.03%

Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Neutral

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Neutral

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Major indexes posted modest strength Tuesday, but in trading Tuesday evening a portion of those gains was given back.
  • Trading volume on NYSE relative to Monday’s activity rose 12%. Average Price per Share gained $1.93 to $64.41.
  • Minor Cycle remains negative until S&P rises above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1429.67 through Wednesday).
  • While S&P was unable to decisively break below 10-Week Price Channel (1413.38 through November 2) to suggest reversal to Intermediate Cycle negative, fact Dow 30, NASDAQ, and Value Line index did is reason to suggest Intermediate Cycle has taken on more negative outlook. As a consequence, S&P must now rise above upper edge of 10-Week Price Channel (1451.21) to create new intermediate uptrend.
  • Major resistance and point to overcome to re-assert long-term uptrend in S&P 500 remains at 1474.51 created on September 14.
  • Daily MAAD was positive Tuesday with 12 issues higher, 7 lower, and one unchanged. Daily MAAD Ratio was last heading toward “Neutral” (.98).
  • Daily CPFL was positive Tuesday by 2.94 to 1 with Daily CPFL Ratio moving upward toward “Neutral” (.85).

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • Short-term hesitation, at least, continues in major indexes as Minor Cycle “Oversold” conditions give way to “Neutral.”
  • History suggests that in Intermediate Cycle negative, “Neutral” can equate to “Overbought” in positive intermediate trend.
  • While we could see some further positive rebounding, we continue to believe Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun in early June is over and September 14 intraday highs (1454.71—S&P 500) will not be seriously challenged for foreseeable future.
  • How new intermediate-term negative plays out could determine staying power of Major Cycle trend which is challenged in terms of “Overbought” conditions and lack of solid indicator underpinnings.

cumulative, volume

emini, cumulative, volume

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

11/5

11/6

11/7

11/8

11/9

11/9

11/30

S&P 500 Index

BUY 1438.37

BUY 1433.67

BUY 1429.67

BUY 1427.82

BUY 1427.54

BUY 1451.21

SELL 1277.32

Dow Jones Industrials

BUY 13359.82

BUY 13312.41

BUY 13276.34

BUY 13260.17

BUY 13252.01

BUY 13499.72

SELL 12198.68

NASDAQ Composite

BUY 3041.02

BUY 3030.67

BUY 3019.74

BUY 3016.08

BUY 3016.04

BUY 3149.46

SELL 2738.24

Value Line Index

BUY 3041.22

BUY 3032.20

BUY 3027.17

BUY 3033.01

BUY 3041.34

BUY 3093.61

SELL 2734.45

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

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