KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 108.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.71 – 102.07.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 104.76.
- December Brent Crude rallied higher in late afternoon trading on Monday because of an explosive move higher on reports of possible increasing tension in the Middle East after finding initial support below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Look for Brent to have a choppy trading session on Tuesday ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election where unless a decisive victory is decided the market will most likely drop lower as uncertainty could spoil investor sentiment.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.18
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/05/12 @ 84.65. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/05/12 @ 84.65. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.53.
- December WTI Crude Oil nudged lower in early trading on Monday before sparking a late day rally to close just off the daily highs in a bout of short-covering heading into Tuesday’s election.
- WTI should fall lower on Tuesday trading in a quiet session ahead of the election results yet finish the session just above $85.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.92
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.26
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
- VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 3.506.
- December Natural Gas spent most of the entire trading session below the daily Support Bollinger Band on Monday but rallied to finish above the day’s mid-range and flat on the session.
- Monday’s price action could just be a slowdown day after breaking through heavy support last Friday. Having found crucial support at the psychological price of $3.50, this market may be able to put an end to the recent slippage and move back near $3.80.
- Projected Daily Range: .111
- Projected Weekly Range: .314
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1698.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1698.60. Downside Targets = 1653.70 – 1642.60
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1672.50.
- December Gold moved lower initially on Monday before rallying a shade higher in a tight trading session following last Friday’s dramatic decline lower.
- Like other risk assets, look for trading on Tuesday to be quiet as the market should trade between $1,680 - $1,700.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1.2772.
- The December Euro FX followed through on Monday’s projection that the market would crack the October lows as it neared new two-month trading lows and traders looked to Greece’s vote on additional austerity measures with skepticism.
- Look for the euro to continue lower toward the initial downside target of 1.2735 and possibly extend these losses should the US presidential election remain hanging in the balance.
- Projected Daily Range: .0088
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/01/12 @ 1418.50 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 1423.25. Upside Targets = 1439.25 – 1448.25.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1402.25. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1402.25 or lower.
- The December S&Ps gapped lower on the open in overnight trading Monday but were able to log a modest gain in a day full of back and forth trading ahead of Tuesday’s big election.
- Look for the market to open steady and trade in a tight range throughout most of the session with the resistance clearly pegged just shy of 1420.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
