Natural gas tries to end slippage with support at $3.50

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 11/06/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 108.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.71 – 102.07.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 104.76.
  • December Brent Crude rallied higher in late afternoon trading on Monday because of an explosive move higher on reports of possible increasing tension in the Middle East after finding initial support below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • Look for Brent to have a choppy trading session on Tuesday ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election where unless a decisive victory is decided the market will most likely drop lower as uncertainty could spoil investor sentiment.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.18
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.65

WTI Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/05/12 @ 84.65. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/05/12 @ 84.65. Downside Targets = 81.36 – 78.53.
  • December WTI Crude Oil nudged lower in early trading on Monday before sparking a late day rally to close just off the daily highs in a bout of short-covering heading into Tuesday’s election.
  • WTI should fall lower on Tuesday trading in a quiet session ahead of the election results yet finish the session just above $85.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.92
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.26
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.61

Natural Gas (December):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
  • VRCB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 3.506.
  • December Natural Gas spent most of the entire trading session below the daily Support Bollinger Band on Monday but rallied to finish above the day’s mid-range and flat on the session.
  • Monday’s price action could just be a slowdown day after breaking through heavy support last Friday. Having found crucial support at the psychological price of $3.50, this market may be able to put an end to the recent slippage and move back near $3.80.
  • Projected Daily Range: .111
  • Projected Weekly Range: .314
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

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