KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 108.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.71 – 102.07.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 105.50.
- December Brent Crude dropped sharply lower on Friday to trade at its lowest level since early August. The correction lower continues as economic indicators continue to look bleak both domestically and abroad as well as a supply disruption due to the recent hurricane in the northeast.
- Expect for Brent to trade lower on Monday as it targets our downside objectives that we have listed over the last six weeks at $101.89 – $103.22.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.03
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.63
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.65
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 86.44. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 87.09. Upside Targets = 89.17 – 90.22.
- Possible Standard and Conservative confirmation of a top @ 84.65.
- December WTI Crude Oil sank lower with the rest of the risk markets on Friday to settle below $85 on a weekly level for the first time in four months.
- WTI is quickly approaching our initial Intermediate Term downside target of $82.95 and if it is not able to find some strong support near this level, look for the $80 mark to be violated as the market may trade to as low as $78.53.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.03
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.26
- Projected Monthly Range: 10.61
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 3.532.
- December Natural Gas dropped sharply lower on Friday as it closed at its lowest level in more than a month as large specs broke through the $3.60 support zone to trade near the 50-day moving average and close below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
- Natural gas should move back higher to retest the $3.60 mark in early trading on Monday and then fall back lower to go after the Intermediate Term downside target of $3.422.
- Projected Daily Range: .116
- Projected Weekly Range: .314
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1698.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1698.60. Downside Targets = 1653.70 – 1642.60
- New lows made on current move @ 1674.90.
- December Gold dropped sharply lower on Friday as a systemic “risk-off” day across the commodity space helped to push the precious metal to its lowest level since the announcement of QE3.
- Gold may extend its current declines for another week or so as it retraces lower to the previous level of resistance at $1,642.40 that may now help to support the market.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 103.60
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2929. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/02/12 @ 1.2886. Downside Targets = 1.2735 – 1.2676.
- The December Euro FX dropped to its lowest level in nearly a month on Friday as the market bucks the trend of generating quiet trading days with risk assets selling off as global economic uncertainty lingers ahead of the US Presidential election.
- After having impacted the daily Support Bollinger Band, look for the euro to make an initial push higher on Monday before eventually breaking through the October lows at 1.2813.
- Projected Daily Range: .0088
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0501
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/01/12 @ 1418.50 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 1423.25. Upside Targets = 1439.25 – 1448.25.
- The December S&Ps dropped significantly lower on Friday after trading to within just five ticks of the three-week average range objective to close on the session’s low as our daily Stochastic indicator continues to decline lower pointing towards a lower Monday.
- The S&Ps should see a modest pop higher in early trading on Monday in what should be a very erratic trading week with the US Presidential Election and other key economic indicators due out.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.25
