Oil selling intensifies, targets $78

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 11/05/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 108.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.71 – 102.07.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 105.50.
  • December Brent Crude dropped sharply lower on Friday to trade at its lowest level since early August. The correction lower continues as economic indicators continue to look bleak both domestically and abroad as well as a supply disruption due to the recent hurricane in the northeast.
  • Expect for Brent to trade lower on Monday as it targets our downside objectives that we have listed over the last six weeks at $101.89 – $103.22.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.03
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.63
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.65

WTI Crude Oil (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 86.44. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 87.09. Upside Targets = 89.17 – 90.22.
  • Possible Standard and Conservative confirmation of a top @ 84.65.
  • December WTI Crude Oil sank lower with the rest of the risk markets on Friday to settle below $85 on a weekly level for the first time in four months.
  • WTI is quickly approaching our initial Intermediate Term downside target of $82.95 and if it is not able to find some strong support near this level, look for the $80 mark to be violated as the market may trade to as low as $78.53.
  • Projected Daily Range: 2.03
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.26
  • Projected Monthly Range: 10.61

Natural Gas (December):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.501 – 3.476.
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 3.532.
  • December Natural Gas dropped sharply lower on Friday as it closed at its lowest level in more than a month as large specs broke through the $3.60 support zone to trade near the 50-day moving average and close below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • Natural gas should move back higher to retest the $3.60 mark in early trading on Monday and then fall back lower to go after the Intermediate Term downside target of $3.422.
  • Projected Daily Range: .116
  • Projected Weekly Range: .314
  • Projected Monthly Range: .624

Comments
comments powered by Disqus