Stock index, chart, technical analysis
| Market Snapshot for session ending 11-1-12 | |||||
|
Last |
Day Change |
%Change |
|||
|
S&P 500 Index |
1427.59 |
+15.43 |
+1.09% |
||
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
13232.62 |
+136.16 |
+1.04% |
||
|
NASDAQ Composite |
3020.06 |
+42.82 |
+1.44% |
||
|
Value Line Arithmetic Index |
3073.54 |
+50.45 |
+1.67% |
||
|
Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Neutral / Negative |
Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Neutral |
Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive |
|||
Market Overview – What We Know:
- Short-term “Oversold” conditions took hold Thursday to spur index pricing higher.
- S&P 500 closed toward day’s high (1428.35).
- Minor Cycle remains negative until S&P rises above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1433.67 through Friday).
- NYSE trading volume declined 7% Thursday and Average Price per Share gained 29 cents to $60.74.
- S&P has yet to decisively break below 10-Week Price Channel (1413.38 through November 2) to suggest reversal to Intermediate Cycle negative.
- Daily MAAD was net positive Thursday with 17 issues higher and 3 lower. Daily MAAD Ratio remains “Oversold” (.78).
- Daily CPFL was sharply positive Thursday by 5.25 to 1 with Daily CPFL Ratio rising from “Oversold” territory (.89).
Market Overview – What We Think:
- We continue to believe Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun in early June is over and September 14 intraday highs (1454.71—S&P 500) will not be seriously unchallenged for foreseeable future.
- While pricing in all of major indexes has moved within range of lower edges of 10-Week Price Channels (1413.38—S&P 500) and has even broken below similar points in Dow 30 and NASDAQ Composite to suggest Intermediate Cycle negativity, in face of near-term “Oversold” conditions, we could see further rebounding on short-term trend..
- But we also suspect any near-term pop would be short-lived and would produce no more than “Neutral” short-term readings. Such conditions should precede setup for resumption of larger intermediate-term negative.
- How new intermediate-term negative plays out could determine staying power of Major Cycle trend which is challenged in terms of “Overbought” conditions and lack of solid indicator underpinnings.
| Index | Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops | Weekly | Monthly | ||||
|
10/29 |
10/30 |
10/31 |
11/1 |
11/2 |
11/2 |
11/30 |
|
|
S&P 500 Index |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
SELL |
SELL |
|
Dow Jones Industrials |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
SELL |
|
NASDAQ Composite |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
SELL |
|
Value Line Index |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
BUY |
SELL |
SELL |
Next page: Indicator review
We are also updating the daily chart of both the Call/Put Dollar Value Flow Line (CPFL) and Most Actives Advance/Decline Line (MAAD) indicators every day and providing the most recent raw data so you can begin to plot the indicators on your own (see below). The weekly equity index indicator summary provides longer-term commentary based on these indicators.
The definitions of the indicators along with links to the original stories provide helpful background. Also, Robert describes these indicators in a recent I-Trade show presentation available online.
|
MAAD Daily data for past 30 days* |
CPFL data for past 30 Days |
||||
|
Date |
NYSE Adv |
NYSE Dec |
Date |
OEX Call $Volume |
OEX Put $Volume |
|
9-19-12 |
14 |
6 |
9-19-12 |
20304 |
13568 |
|
9-20-12 |
7 |
13 |
9-20-12 |
59078 |
14151 |
|
9-21-12 |
9 |
11 |
9-21-12 |
31947 |
15633 |
|
9-24-12 |
3 |
17 |
9-24-12 |
29324 |
13174 |
|
9-25-12 |
3 |
17 |
9-25-12 |
9041 |
33846 |
|
9-26-12 |
6 |
14 |
9-26-12 |
33635 |
38648 |
|
9-27-12 |
16 |
3 |
9-27-12 |
23441 |
15166 |
|
9-28-12 |
3 |
16 |
9-28-12 |
17376 |
18362 |
|
10-1-12 |
14 |
6 |
10-1-12 |
24889 |
19709 |
|
10-2-12 |
12 |
7 |
10-2-12 |
5764 |
13411 |
|
10-3-12 |
12 |
8 |
10-3-12 |
12679 |
19419 |
|
10-4-12 |
15 |
5 |
10-4-12 |
19561 |
14690 |
|
10-5-12 |
7 |
13 |
10-5-12 |
18107 |
18960 |
|
10-8-12 |
4 |
16 |
10-8-12 |
5046 |
21196 |
|
10-9-12 |
3 |
17 |
10-9-12 |
18477 |
31201 |
|
10-10-12 |
4 |
15 |
10-10-12 |
15397 |
37527 |
|
10-11-12 |
12 |
7 |
10-11-12 |
9410 |
38706 |
|
10-12-12 |
5 |
15 |
10-12-12 |
12705 |
33183 |
|
10-15-12 |
13 |
7 |
10-15-12 |
15270 |
13445 |
|
10-16-12 |
12 |
6 |
10-16-12 |
29103 |
14115 |
|
10-17-12 |
13 |
6 |
10-17-12 |
29383 |
12501 |
|
10-18-12 |
7 |
13 |
10-18-12 |
14859 |
16038 |
|
10-19-12 |
1 |
19 |
10-19-12 |
23597 |
90225 |
|
10-22-12 |
13 |
6 |
10-22-12 |
78768 |
44349 |
|
10-23-12 |
4 |
16 |
10-23-12 |
19405 |
40598 |
|
10-24-12 |
5 |
14 |
10-24-12 |
13195 |
28399 |
|
10-25-12 |
11 |
8 |
10-25-12 |
18594 |
32595 |
|
10-26-12 |
5 |
14 |
10-26-12 |
15436 |
20380 |
|
10-29-12 |
Closed |
--- |
10-29-12 |
Closed |
--- |
|
10-30-12 |
Closed |
--- |
10-30-12 |
Closed |
--- |
|
10-31-12 |
9 |
10 |
10-31-12 |
9884 |
11891 |
|
11-1-12 |
17 |
3 |
11-1-12 |
86326 |
16444 |
*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.
