Stock market rallies; short-term trend looks more positive

S&P 500 closed near day's high

Stock index, chart, technical analysis Stock index, chart, technical analysis

 

Market Snapshot for session ending 11-1-12
 

Last

Day Change

%Change

S&P 500 Index

1427.59

+15.43

+1.09%

Dow Jones Industrials

13232.62

+136.16

+1.04%

NASDAQ Composite

3020.06

+42.82

+1.44%

Value Line Arithmetic Index

3073.54

+50.45

+1.67%

Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Neutral / Negative

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Neutral

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • Short-term “Oversold” conditions took hold Thursday to spur index pricing higher.
  • S&P 500 closed toward day’s high (1428.35).
  • Minor Cycle remains negative until S&P rises above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1433.67 through Friday).
  • NYSE trading volume declined 7% Thursday and Average Price per Share gained 29 cents to $60.74.
  • S&P has yet to decisively break below 10-Week Price Channel (1413.38 through November 2) to suggest reversal to Intermediate Cycle negative.
  • Daily MAAD was net positive Thursday with 17 issues higher and 3 lower. Daily MAAD Ratio remains “Oversold” (.78).
  • Daily CPFL was sharply positive Thursday by 5.25 to 1 with Daily CPFL Ratio rising from “Oversold” territory (.89).

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • We continue to believe Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun in early June is over and September 14 intraday highs (1454.71—S&P 500) will not be seriously unchallenged for foreseeable future.
  • While pricing in all of major indexes has moved within range of lower edges of 10-Week Price Channels (1413.38—S&P 500) and has even broken below similar points in Dow 30 and NASDAQ Composite to suggest Intermediate Cycle negativity, in face of near-term “Oversold” conditions, we could see further rebounding on short-term trend..
  • But we also suspect any near-term pop would be short-lived and would produce no more than “Neutral” short-term readings. Such conditions should precede setup for resumption of larger intermediate-term negative.
  • How new intermediate-term negative plays out could determine staying power of Major Cycle trend which is challenged in terms of “Overbought” conditions and lack of solid indicator underpinnings.

stock, index, maad, cpfl, technical

stock, emini, cumulative, volume

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

10/29

10/30

10/31

11/1

11/2

11/2

11/30

S&P 500 Index

BUY
1450.62

BUY
1447.73

BUY
1442.74

BUY
1438.37

BUY
1433.67

SELL
1413.38

SELL
1277.32

Dow Jones Industrials

BUY
13494.61

BUY
13467.15

BUY
13409.70

BUY
13359.82

BUY
13312.42

BUY
13442.94

SELL
12198.68

NASDAQ Composite

BUY
3074.45

BUY
3061.27

BUY
3051.08

BUY
3041.02

BUY
3030.67

BUY
3135.46

SELL
2738.24

Value Line Index

BUY
3078.75

BUY
3072.76

BUY
3065.64

BUY
3058.32

BUY
3051.06

SELL
2991.26

SELL
2734.45

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