KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 108.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 108.17. Downside Targets = 103.71 – 102.07.
- VRCB generated on Thursday. Conservative confirmation of a top with a close @ 108.17.
- December Brent Crude sank lower on Thursday while generating its third VRCB pattern in four trading days as it continues to struggle breaking down and trading through last week’s low.
- Because of the light trading volume this week the market is currently on pace to generate a VRCB week as the market finds support near the $107 level but with an increase in volatility should trade to at least $106.23.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.03
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.87
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/31/12 @ 86.44. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 87.09. Upside Targets = 89.17 – 90.22.
- December WTI Crude Oil moved higher on Thursday as it continues to outpace Brent for the week while narrowing the spread to just above $21 while closing at its highest level in eight trading sessions.
- WTI is reaching a point of near certain resistance between $88.09 – $89.30 and should ultimately break back to the downside and trade to the Intermediate Term objective of $82.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.16
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.661 – 3.577.
- Double VRCB pattern generated on Thursday.
- December Natural Gas settled just slightly higher on Thursday in an abnormally un-volatile storage report day that missed expectations with a lower than expected build but last traded near the lows of the day.
- Based on the recent price action and analysis that we have reported over the previous few days, natural gas specs continue to hold this market up above $3.60 and with a range violation above Thursday’s high could push the market back near the $4 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: .119
- Projected Weekly Range: .301
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/26/12 @ 1719.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/31/12 @ 1719.10. Upside Targets = 1744.00 – 1775.60.
- New high made on current move Thursday @ 1711.70.
- December Gold settled back lower on Thursday as the market was unable to break through last week’s high while closing just off the day’s low and below the current mid-range of the week.
- Unless gold can find support tomorrow and rally to close above $1,720, this market may face some ST pressure and challenge the current Q4 low $1,698.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 44.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/30/12 @ 1.2963. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/30/12 @ 1.2969. Upside Targets = 1.3080 – 1.3108.
- VRCB generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1.2929. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 1.2929.
- The December Euro FX wasn’t able to crack the 1.30 market on Thursday before dropping lower in another tight trading range, generating its second VRCB patter this week.
- Look for another “boring” Friday for the euro as is remains in a stalemate trading pattern and should most likely try and crack 1.29 and close flat on the week.
- Projected Daily Range: .0077
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 11/01/12 @ 1418.50 Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/01/12 @ 1423.25. Upside Targets = 1439.25 – 1448.25.
- Bullish OVB generated on Thursday. Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1418.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1423.25.
- The December S&Ps moved sharply higher on Thursday because of better than expected jobs reports as well as other economic data after taking a beating over the past two weeks to close at its highest level in eight sessions.
- Friday should reveal a modest setback just below 1420 and then a resumption of the rally that has unfolded over the past few sessions to bring the market to its weekly upside objective of 1432.75.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
