Re-opened stock market does little for near-term trend

MAAD, CPFL indicator review

Stock index, chart, technical analysis Stock index, chart, technical analysis

Market Snapshot for session ending 10-31-12


Day Change


S&P 500 Index




Dow Jones Industrials




NASDAQ Composite




Value Line Arithmetic Index




Minor Cycle (Short-term trend lasting days to a few weeks) Negative

Intermediate Cycle (Medium trend lasting weeks to several months) Neutral / Negative

Major Cycle (Long-term trend lasting several months to years) Positive

Market Overview – What We Know:

  • In wake of Hurricane Sandy and two days of market closure, major indexes began trading again Wednesday, but only finished within range of even.
  • NYSE trading volume rose 16% relative to last Friday’s levels and Average Price per Share gained 40 cents to $60.45.
  • To suggest short-term reversal to positive, S&P 500 would need to rise above upper edge of 10-Day Price Channel (1438.37). S&P has yet to decisively break below 10-Week Price Channel (1413.38 through November 2) to suggest reversal to Intermediate Cycle negative.
  • Daily MAAD was slightly negative Wednesday with 9 issues higher and 10 lower. Daily MAAD Ratio remains negative in “Oversold” territory (.71).
  • Daily CPFL was negative Wednesday by 1.20 to 1 with Daily CPFL Ratio holding negative and “Oversold” (.72).
  • Cumulative Volume (CV) in S&P 500 and S&P Emini has declined below defined uptrend line in effect since June lows to suggest 4 ½-month-old rally is over.

Market Overview – What We Think:

  • We continue to believe Intermediate Cycle uptrend begun in early June is over and September 14 intraday highs (1454.71—S&P 500) should remain unchallenged for foreseeable future.
  • While pricing in all of major indexes has moved within range of lower edges of 10-Week Price Channels (1413.38—S&P 500) and has even broken below similar points in Dow 30 and NASDAQ Composite to suggest Intermediate Cycle negativity, in face of near-term “Oversold” conditions, we could see short-term bounce develop soon.
  • But we also suspect any near-term pop would be short-lived and would produce no more than “Neutral” short-term readings. Such conditions should precede setup for resumption of larger intermediate-term negative.
  • How new intermediate-term negative plays out could determine staying power of Major Cycle trend which is challenged in terms of “Overbought” conditions and lack of solid indicator underpinnings.

sp, cumulative, volume

emini, cumulative volume

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly








S&P 500 Index

BUY 1450.62

BUY 1447.73

BUY 1442.74

BUY 1438.37

BUY 1433.67

SELL 1413.38

SELL 1277.32

Dow Jones Industrials

BUY 13494.61

BUY 13467.15

BUY 13409.70

BUY 13359.82

BUY 13312.42

BUY 13442.94

SELL 12198.68

NASDAQ Composite

BUY 3074.45

BUY 3061.27

BUY 3051.08

BUY 3041.02

BUY 3030.67

BUY 3135.46

SELL 2738.24

Value Line Index

BUY 3078.75

BUY 3072.76

BUY 3065.64

BUY 3058.32

BUY 3051.06

SELL 2991.26

SELL 2734.45

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