Natural gas bears set for fight with hedge funds at $3.60

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 11/01/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/26/12 @ 1719.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/31/12 @ 1719.10. Upside Targets = 1744.00 – 1775.60.
  • Conservative confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1719.10.
  • December Gold moved higher on Wednesday as a return to normal volumes helped drive the market to its highest level in over a week yet closed only just a few ticks above the daily mid-range.
  • Gold should continue to build on the predominantly bullish price action it saw Wednesday and challenge not only last week’s high but the previous technical resistance price of $1,744.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 44.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/30/12 @ 1.2963. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/30/12 @ 1.2969. Upside Targets = 1.3080 – 1.3108.
  • The December Euro FX settled Wednesday’s session virtually unchanged as it was unable to hold the early rally and push through last Thursday’s resistance high to close in the lower 20% of the day’s trading range.
  • Look for a rally back to 1.3007 on Thursday before the market is dropped lower once again as it should remain stuck in the recent compressed trading range.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0078
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0218
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/23/12 @ 1416.25. Downside Targets = 1387.00 – 1382.00.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1418.50. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1418.50 or lower.
  • The December S&Ps were like most risk assets on Wednesday, characterized by strong initial movements followed by a weak end to the session as they closed lower on the day with bullish divergent price action.
  • Wednesday’s close along with the adjusted ADP employment report noting that a revised September job creation was roughly half of previous estimates should send the market trading mostly lower on Thursday to challenge this week’s low of 1393.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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