From the November 01, 2012 issue of Futures Magazine • Subscribe!

Euro at cyclical crossroads

Forex Trader

The fundamental case also can be powerful in explaining money flows, but not always effective in timing. The ECB’s Outright Market Transaction (OMT) program stands out from prior bond purchase plans via its ability to combine conditionality, sterilization and unlimited purchases. Most of all, the OMT has integrated monetary policy into fiscal policy, i.e., requiring nations to abide by fiscal rules in order for their bonds to receive monetary stimulus. The OMT may not be a direct solution to Europe’s high debt/low growth problem, but it buys invaluable time for national governments to pursue their austerity policies by keeping yields in check and markets supported. 

As for the Fed’s QE3, it stands out from previous programs in its open-ended nature to target the labor market and its willingness to see inflation surpass 2% with the aim of reducing unemployment below the stubborn 8% figure. 

Another remarkable attribute of the Draghi/Bernanke policy combo is that rarely have the markets rallied ahead of anticipated policy measures and continued to do so after their materialization. And so it happened; Draghi vows to spend unlimited amounts to drag down bond yields and Bernanke is willing to extend monthly purchases indefinitely — until unemployment declines and remains at or below 7%.

But for the ECB’s shock and awe OMT program to be activated, a country must request assistance from the European Financial Stability Facility fund, later to become the European Stability Mechanism. At the current juncture, Spain is the nation mostly in need of official help. As long as Madrid refuses to ask for help, speculators will find a motive to attack its bonds and for the Eurozone bond market to lack the required dose of ECB purchases. In the event that Spain’s obstinacy towards a bailout leads to a deterioration of Eurozone conditions and Greece fails to pass the €11 billion ($14.3 billion) in budget cuts, the euro’s upside path could become seriously challenged. 

The combination of aforementioned technical indicators with the ECB’s conditional policy stimulus and the Fed’s open-ended balance sheet expansion paves the way for the next $1.35-bound move. Such positive assessment for the euro is not without risks. In order for the three-month uptrend to remain intact, EUR/USD must continue to close above $1.2650. We have seen false rebounds before, but never such a monthly reversal coinciding with yet another bounce off the crucial 200-month moving average. With the central banks willing to cooperate, euro technicals also may be willing to move along.  

Ashraf Laidi is chief global strategist at City Index-FX Solutions and author of “Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis.” His Intermarket Insight appears daily on AshrafLaidi.com. 

About the Author

Ashraf Laidi is chief global strategist at City Index-FX Solutions and author of “Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis.” His Intermarket Insight appears daily on AshrafLaidi.com.

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