KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/26/12 @ 109.35. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 109.55. Upside Targets = 112.07 – 113.69.
- DOUBLE VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 108.50. Possible confirmation of a top with a close @ 108.50 or lower.
- December Brent Crude moved just fractionally lower on Tuesday as it only managed to attract about 2/3 of the normal daily volume in the aftermath of the hurricane in the northeast.
- While the past two sessions price action could reasonably be argued as unreliable, traders should not forget that this market is coming off of a Short Term trend reversing move lower and with demand destruction that is likely to follow, Brent could drop to what will be new three-month lows below $105 to our Intermediate Term targets of 101.89 – 103.22.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.11
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.87
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 90.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 90.44. Downside Targets = 86.82 – 85.38
- Inside VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 86.44. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 86.44 or higher.
- December WTI Crude Oil faired only slightly better than Brent on Tuesday as it has tried over the past five trading sessions to find support near the $85 threshold on depressed trading volume.
- With the NYMEX re-opening on Wednesday, look for an extremely volatile trading session as the market should ultimately finish lower and approach our first Intermediate Term target of $82.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.11
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.16
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.661 – 3.577.
- New lows generated on current move Tuesday @ 3.650.
- December Natural Gas dropped lower in Tuesday trading as it nearly impacted the daily Support Bollinger Band and traded just pennies away from the October lows of $3.609.
- Natural gas should trade lower throughout the rest of the week as decreased demand should push storage levels much higher than recent weeks and possibly fill the gap left from the November contract into the $3.40s.
- Projected Daily Range: .127
- Projected Weekly Range: .301
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/26/12 @ 1719.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Upside Targets = 1744.00 – 1775.60.
- DOUBLE VRCB generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1719.00 or higher.
- December Gold has remained virtually flat in the first two sessions of trading this week as volumes have been light because of the impact of Hurricane Sandy in the northeast.
- As New York comes back online for trading on Wednesday, should gold find any support in early trading and push through last Friday’s OVB high of $1,719.90 it should continue higher over the coming weeks toward the Short Term target of 1775.30.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 44.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/30/12 @ 1.2963. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/30/12 @ 1.2969. Upside Targets = 1.3080 – 1.3108.
- The December Euro FX moved back to the upside on Tuesday despite trading at less than 50% of the normal volume as the market was able to find buyers at 1.29 once again.
- As previously mentioned in multiple reports as far back as two weeks ago, the current movement of the euro should viewed skeptically as it has the makings of a range bound market that should stay this way over the coming weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .0078
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/23/12 @ 1416.25. Downside Targets = 1387.00 – 1382.00.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
- The December S&Ps had very little trading on Monday because of the closure of the NYSE and with New York being shut down on Tuesday, expect for very low volumes to drive the market around in extremely volatile trading as the market should most likely head lower throughout the coming weeks and break through to challenge the lows set back at the beginning of August @ 1380.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
