KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/26/12 @ 109.35. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 109.55. Upside Targets = 112.07 – 113.69.
- VRCB generated on Monday after making new highs on current move @ 110.26.
- December Brent Crude Oil moved mostly higher on Monday in light trading before settling just a few cents lower yet above the daily mid-range.
- As Hurricane Sandy bears down on the Eastern Seaboard Monday evening, look for volumes to be light again on Tuesday with the NYSE and NYMEX both closed again and look for oil to move lower over the next week as demand dissipates.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.11
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.87
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 90.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 90.44. Downside Targets = 86.82 – 85.38
- Bearish OVB generated on Monday making new lows on current move @ 84.66.
- December WTI Crude Oil led the oil complex lower on Monday as it generated new three-month lows while once again breaking $85 in a light trading session because of the closure of the NYMEX.
- Expect WTI to fall lower over the coming days in electronic trading as the market will most likely trade to at least the initial Q4 downside target of $82.95 and possible even lower below $80.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.55
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.16
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (December):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/26/12 @ 3.724. Downside Targets = 3.661 – 3.577.
- C > HOLB (Close Below Low High Bar) generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.852. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.852 or higher.
- December Natural Gas moved back to the upside in a very thin trading session on Monday as electronic traders shifted the market all over the place as it traded up near last Wednesday’s bearish OVB high before settling just above $3.80.
- With large power outages expected throughout the East Coast, look for any selling opportunity to yield extensive Short Term gains as the supply injections over the upcoming two weeks should be above normal after the large decrease in demand.
- Projected Daily Range: .127
- Projected Weekly Range: .301
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/26/12 @ 1719.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Upside Targets = 1744.00 – 1775.60.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1719.00 or higher.
- December Gold dropped back slightly lower on Monday in what turned out to be a thin trading session with less than 50% of normal trading volume.
- Gold should again find support above $1,700/oz. on Tuesday and move back near last Friday’s high of $1,719.90 in what should be another quiet session.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 44.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.2963. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 1.2963 or higher.
- The December Euro FX moved back to the downside on Monday as it too was affected by a sharp drop-off in volume on Monday, trading at only 33% of normal trading days.
- Look for those trading electronically to continue to move the market slightly lower as it should challenge the October lows at 1.2813.
- Projected Daily Range: .0077
- Projected Weekly Range: .0218
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/23/12 @ 1416.25. Downside Targets = 1387.00 – 1382.00.
- Inside VRCB generated on Monday.
- The December S&Ps had very little trading on Monday because of the closure of the NYSE and with New York being shut down on Tuesday, expect for very low volumes to drive the market around in extremely volatile trading as the market should most likely head lower throughout the coming weeks and break through to challenge the lows set back at the beginning of August at 1380.50.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.75
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
