Last week December 2012 copper opened at $3.6375 per pound and closed at $3.5500. While new home sales did show an increase in September 2012, building will slow down as winter weather approaches here in the U.S. and will lower demand for copper. Also if we see continued global economic weakness in Europe and Asia, that also will have an effect on demand.
On the daily chart below, you can see that ADX reflects increasing strength to trend as the numbers rise now at 31.6. MACD is bearish and Stochastics are in deep oversold territory. You can see the two “red vertical lines” highlighting technical trade signals from one of the tools at Trends in Futures called the TS Analyzer. When the first one showed up, I mentioned to wait for a solid break below $2.7000. The break took place on the second red line on Oct 19.
On the weekly chart, you can see weekly ADX reflects increasing strength to the weekly trend with numbers rising now at 33. Weekly Stochastics are mid-range and coming down.
Proceed to Page 2 for the latest COT Data...
On the COT Disaggregated report, Producers had a slight drop to net shorts now -51,488 contracts. Managed Money had a slight drop to net longs now at 18,067 and Swap Dealers had a slight increase to net longs now at 45,586 contracts.
With today’s price action and a continued posture for weaker prices by big money we could see a test of $3.4500.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the NEW COT report to your benefit get instant access to my new e-book "What Lies Beneath ALL Trends". It is filled with eye opening information.Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals...
For all of you in the path of Super-storm Sandy, my prayers go out to you.
Have a prosperous trading week.
To see my market views daily you can follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TrendsinFutures