Now we are a week away from the big day. As far as our work is concerned, the correction has done its damage. What looked like a cakewalk for the incumbent our October time window which was Romney’s last chance actually might have been the turning point. We are now one stock market week out. I think we are to the point from a socionomic standpoint that whatever happens this week isn’t going to change the election outcome anymore. After months of analyzing this thing, the October turn melted the incumbent’s lead and the correction actually has the challenger ahead by a nose. I’m sure a few down days couldn’t hurt the challenger but I now think 99.9% of the people who are voting have made their decision. Even though I’m not political I’ll be voting. I think if the election were held right now, Romney wins by a nose.
On another socionomic note, the bull market hero (if you can call it that) would be the incumbent President and regardless of what you think about him, given the country’s racist history, an African American President is an incredible step forward for this country and Mr. Obama will always be a hero to many segments of the population. But since this correction hit, the Libyan fiasco just won’t go away. I’ll measure my words carefully and allegedly the administration knew the raid was a terrorist attack. That has been widely reported in the media, we know that. I think that if Obama wins, it will not go away and likely becomes a 2nd term scandal. Whoever wins a 2nd term ends up with some type of scandal, don’t they?
To sum this up, we have a market that’s fishing for a bottom. I think that technically we could be very close but I don’t think sentiment has caught up yet. In our chart of the week we have the SSE which is disappointing again. I think it will be very hard for the risk on trade to get it going without Chinese help.