KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/18/12 @ 112.42. Downside Targets = 110.86 – 109.36.
- Inside compression day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 109.35. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 109.35 or higher.
- December Brent Crude rebounded from its recent seven-day skid as projected in Thursday morning’s report as it looks to eliminate some of the losses sustained over the past few weeks amid negative earnings reports and a weaker outlook for the coming months.
- The one key aspect that delineates Brent from WTI is the fact that it remains able to hold up at key support prices and until it breaks down and closes below $106, this market remains bullish.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.28
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.35
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 90.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 90.44. Downside Targets = 86.82 – 85.38
- Inside compression day generated on Thursday. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 87.48. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 87.48 or higher.
- December WTI Crude Oil moved just slightly higher on Thursday while in a round of modest short covering because of significant price drops leading to an oversold market.
- With Thursday’s indeterminate price action, expect WTI to move just slightly higher in early morning trading before falling back lower to settle just off the weekly lows of $84.94.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.55
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.93
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/25/12 @ 3.751. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/18/12 @ 3.904. Upside Targets = 3.959– 4.077.
- Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.751 or lower
- December Natural Gas settled just slightly higher on Thursday in what turned out to be an extremely volatile trading session after the market initially broke through both this week’s and last week’s low and then closed back above the daily mid-range.
- While natural gas exhibited bearish divergent price action on Thursday, if the market cannot break-through $3.70 to retest the next support price of $3.65, natural gas could move back to the upside and crack the $4.00 threshold.
- Projected Daily Range: .125
- Projected Weekly Range: .260
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1768.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1704.30 – 1697.70.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1719.00. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1719.00 or higher.
- December Gold moved back to the upside on Thursday after the market traded to within $1 of our Q4 downside objective and closed in the upper 70% of the session’s trading range.
- If gold can push through Thursday’s highs of $1,718.90 heading into the weekend, look for the market to take a shot at the current weekly highs before extending its gains to as high as $1,776.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
- The December Euro FX sank lower in Thursday trading as it erased some of its early session advances and closed at its lowest point since the 11th.
- Expect the euro to fall lower again on Friday to target the current downside targets just below 1.29 heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: .0097
- Projected Weekly Range: .0239
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/23/12 @ 1416.25. Downside Targets = 1387.00 – 1382.00.
- Bearish OVB generated on Thursday making new lows on the current move @ 1399.50. Downside Targets over 145% achieved.
- The December S&Ps settled just fractionally higher on Thursday despite trading below the 1400 threshold for the first time since QE3 was announced because it could not build on better than expected jobless claims and durable goods orders.
- The S&Ps should decline even further on Friday as earnings results from both Amazon and Apple were not as strong as expected to go along with a lower Q1 target issued by Apple, which should push the market down near the 1393 level by the end of trading.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
