Fourteen of 20 people surveyed said raw sugar will rise next week and three expected a decline. The commodity slid 17 percent to 19.33 cents a pound since the start of January on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange in New York.
Fifteen of 28 people surveyed anticipate higher corn prices next week and five were bearish, while 17 of 29 said soybeans will climb and five predicted a drop. Corn rallied 15 percent to $7.4225 a bushel in Chicago trading this year as soybeans rose 29 percent to $15.585 a bushel. Both crops reached records since August as the worst U.S. drought in a half century hurt crops.
The GSCI gauge of raw materials erased this year’s gain three days ago after entering a bull market in the third quarter. The last annual decline was in 2008 and the index made annual advances in 11 of the past 13 years.
The commodity supercycle has further to go because of increasing demand from China and emerging markets, Chris Watling, chief executive officer of Longview Economics Ltd., and Dambisa Moyo, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist, said at a conference in London on Oct. 24.
“The inflation story in commodities is warranted,” said Colin O’Shea, the head of commodities at Hermes Investment Management Ltd. in London, which manages about $2.3 billion of raw-material assets. “Inflation could really happen, and happen in a big way over the course of the next few years. Historically, the primary reason for investing in commodities is diversification.”
Gold survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 9 Hold: 3
Copper survey results: Bullish: 15 Bearish: 10 Hold: 5
Corn survey results: Bullish: 15 Bearish: 5 Hold: 8
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 17 Bearish: 5 Hold: 7
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 3 Hold: 3
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 13 Bearish: 3 Hold: 4
White sugar premium results: Widen: 5 Narrow: 6 Neutral: 9