Natural gas looks to confirm top, oil may bounce

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 10/25/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1768.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1704.30 – 1697.70.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1698.70. Downside Target 99% achieved.
  • December Gold continued its decline lower on Wednesday after coming within just $1 of the Q4 downside price objective projected on Oct. 8.
  • Expect for gold prices to rise on Thursday after the FOMC meeting announcement reaffirmed the Fed’s position of further stimulating the economy by holding down interest rates and purchasing MBS’s.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1.2926. Downside Targets 85% achieved.
  • The December Euro FX generated bearish divergent price action on Wednesday as it logged a lower high and lower low yet closed back above Tuesday’s close and above the daily mid-range.
  • The status quo in the euro remains intact with the market still stuck in the range bound price action but should the current price movement produce a low volatility buying opportunity, look for traders to take advantage as the bullish trend should remain in place.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0090
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0239
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/23/12 @ 1416.25. Downside Targets = 1387.00 – 1382.00.
  • New lows made on current move Wednesday @ 1401.75.
  • The December S&Ps fell lower in late trading on Wednesday as they violated Tuesday’s bearish OVB by a single tick while once again close below the daily Support Bollinger Band.
  • Like the other risk markets, look for the S&Ps to rise on Thursday after being oversold into short term support as it moves as high as 1417.50 during tomorrow’s trading.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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