KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/23/12 @ 1416.25. Downside Targets = 1387.00 – 1382.00.
- Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on the current move @ 1402.00.
- The December S&Ps dropped sharply lower as they were unable to find further support from Monday’s late session rally and dropped to within just a few points of 1400 as suggested in Monday evenings report while close below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the first time since the June bottom.
- After earnings reports continue to be unimpressive, look for rallies to become viable selling opportunities as the market should trade down to a minimum of 1382.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1768.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1704.30 – 1697.70.
- Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on the current move @ 1704.60.
- December Gold fell lower on Tuesday after Monday’s short-covering move higher lasted only briefly as projected in Monday evening’s report while challenging the $1,700 level for the first time in six weeks.
- Look for our Q4 downside objective of $1,697.70 to be achieved in short order and then find solid footing as it trades out to the side in the near-term while building a base for a move back higher.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1.2957.
- The December Euro FX resumed the downward momentum from the end of last week on Tuesday as Monday’s slight move higher was thwarted and the market closed back below 1.30 on the same growth worries that had the market as a whole down on Tuesday in addition to Spanish debt worries continuing to linger.
- As mentioned in earlier reports, we expect the euro to remain range bound in the current trading range it has been stuck in over the last five weeks until after U.S. elections.
- Projected Daily Range: .0086
- Projected Weekly Range: .0239
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/18/12 @ 112.42. Downside Targets = 110.86 – 109.36.
- New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 107.31.
- December Brent Crude dropped to its lowest level in nearly three weeks on Tuesday as the global growth concern dominated the “risk” markets helping to push Brent below the daily SBB during intraday trading.
- Brent is once again nearing the initial support zone of $107.18 – $106.50 but unless this market can avoid closing below $106.57 it could continue even further to as low as $103.22.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.57
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.35
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 90.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 90.44. Downside Targets = 86.82 – 85.38
- New lows generated on current move Tuesday @ 85.69.
- December WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply lower on Tuesday to trade at its lowest level in more than three months and close below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the first time since the end of June.
- WTI should see a modest bounce higher in early trading on Wednesday but ultimately faces continued pressure to the downside and trade to the Intermediate Term objective noted in Tuesday morning’s report of $82.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 3.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.93
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 3.592. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 3.617. Upside Targets = 3.629 – 3.747.
- Inside compression day generated on Tuesday. Possible confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 3.425. Possible confirmation of a top with a close violation @ 3.425 or lower.
- November Natural Gas moved back to the upside on Tuesday to the exact tick where Monday evenings report noted it would face some resistance as Monday’s fall was an overblown sell-off.
- Look for natural gas to initially trade through Tuesday’s high where it will then need to either aggressively move higher toward Monday’s high or risk being dropped hard back toward the previous two weeks’ lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .144
- Projected Weekly Range: .260
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
