E-mini S&P risks 1382 as earnings continue to disappoint

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 10/24/12


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/23/12 @ 1416.25. Downside Targets = 1387.00 – 1382.00.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on the current move @ 1402.00.
  • The December S&Ps dropped sharply lower as they were unable to find further support from Monday’s late session rally and dropped to within just a few points of 1400 as suggested in Monday evenings report while close below the daily Support Bollinger Band for the first time since the June bottom.
  • After earnings reports continue to be unimpressive, look for rallies to become viable selling opportunities as the market should trade down to a minimum of 1382.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1768.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1704.30 – 1697.70.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on the current move @ 1704.60.
  • December Gold fell lower on Tuesday after Monday’s short-covering move higher lasted only briefly as projected in Monday evening’s report while challenging the $1,700 level for the first time in six weeks.
  • Look for our Q4 downside objective of $1,697.70 to be achieved in short order and then find solid footing as it trades out to the side in the near-term while building a base for a move back higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: 23.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
  • New lows made on current move Tuesday @ 1.2957.
  • The December Euro FX resumed the downward momentum from the end of last week on Tuesday as Monday’s slight move higher was thwarted and the market closed back below 1.30 on the same growth worries that had the market as a whole down on Tuesday in addition to Spanish debt worries continuing to linger.
  • As mentioned in earlier reports, we expect the euro to remain range bound in the current trading range it has been stuck in over the last five weeks until after U.S. elections.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0086
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0239
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

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