KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/18/12 @ 112.42. Downside Targets = 110.86 – 109.36.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 109.17. Downside Targets over 110% achieved.
- December Brent Crude dropped lowed on Monday during a second half day drop after being unable to sustain the early move back higher and it closed at its lowest level in 13 sessions.
- Based on the price action in Brent, look for the current downward pressure to extend a bit further before finding support near the Intermediate Term price objectives of $106.50 – 107.18.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.43
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.35
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 90.18. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 90.44. Downside Targets = 86.82 – 86.47
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 88.57. Downside Target 75% achieved.
- December WTI Crude Oil dropped to within less than $0.50 of the two-month lows from two weeks ago as it closed outside the daily Support Bollinger Band due to a slow and steady fall throughout the trading session.
- Because of the overall weakness in WTI as compared to Brent, look for WTI to generate new three-month lows this week as it trades toward not only the Short-Term objectives near $86 but the Intermediate-Term support area at $82.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.62
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.93
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/19/2012 @ 3.592. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/19/2012 @ 3.617. Upside Targets = 3.629 – 3.747.
- Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Monday after making new contract highs @ 3.648.
- November Natural Gas dropped sharply lower in the second half of trading on Monday as non-commercial traders increased their net short position in the market as it traded to last week’s low range support zone below $3.45.
- Look for an early session rally in natural gas and should it run into additional resistance near Friday’s low, traders should aggressively sell this market expecting the previous two-weeks’ low to be violated.
- Projected Daily Range: .136
- Projected Weekly Range: .260
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1768.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1704.30 – 1697.70.
- New lows made on current move Monday @ 1714.40.
- December Gold followed through on Monday’s report as it traded through last week’s low by less than $2 and then rallied to close back above the previous sessions close and the daily mid-range.
- Monday’s short-covering “rally” may turn out to be short lived as it works lower toward the downside Q4 objective before resuming the current Intermediate Term bull market move back to new highs for the year.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3091. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3091 or higher.
- The December Euro FX traded within another very thin session on Monday as it worked out to the side throughout most of the day while settling just below the daily mid-range.
- The euro continues to be stagnant at the current price levels and unless it can spark a rally to close above last week’s high of 1.3147 expect for the FX currency to meander between 1.31 and 1.2950 for the next few weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .0090
- Projected Weekly Range: .0239
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/17/12 @ 1457.00. Upside Targets = 1469.00 – 1482.25.
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 1423.25. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1423.25 or lower.
- The December S&Ps reacted in perfect unison with this weekend’s report as it broke just narrowly through Friday’s low before rallying to close exactly at 1430 as projected.
- Like other risk markets, look for Monday’s short covering “rally” to fade as it works back near Friday’s low again where unless it can find solid footing, the market may collapse below last week’s low and make its first serious attempt at the 1400 threshold in nearly two months.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
