Oil weakness continues as $83 target comes into play

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 10/23/12

METALS

COMEX Gold (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1768.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1704.30 – 1697.70.
  • New lows made on current move Monday @ 1714.40.
  • December Gold followed through on Monday’s report as it traded through last week’s low by less than $2 and then rallied to close back above the previous sessions close and the daily mid-range.
  • Monday’s short-covering “rally” may turn out to be short lived as it works lower toward the downside Q4 objective before resuming the current Intermediate Term bull market move back to new highs for the year.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 45.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 95.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (December):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
  • Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 1.3091. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close @ 1.3091 or higher.
  • The December Euro FX traded within another very thin session on Monday as it worked out to the side throughout most of the day while settling just below the daily mid-range.
  • The euro continues to be stagnant at the current price levels and unless it can spark a rally to close above last week’s high of 1.3147 expect for the FX currency to meander between 1.31 and 1.2950 for the next few weeks.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0090
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0239
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0600

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (December)

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/22/12 @ 1423.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/17/12 @ 1457.00. Upside Targets = 1469.00 – 1482.25.
  • Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a range violation @ 1423.25. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1423.25 or lower.
  • The December S&Ps reacted in perfect unison with this weekend’s report as it broke just narrowly through Friday’s low before rallying to close exactly at 1430 as projected.
  • Like other risk markets, look for Monday’s short covering “rally” to fade as it works back near Friday’s low again where unless it can find solid footing, the market may collapse below last week’s low and make its first serious attempt at the 1400 threshold in nearly two months.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
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About the Author
Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks

Parrish Hicks Capital Research is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in Energy and Metal commodity futures. The two founders, Jim Parrish and Kris Hicks, have a combined 38 years’ experience in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October. They also called the all-time high day for Gold on September 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012.  Their trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. Their expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach them at Jim@ParrishHicks.com and Kris@ParrishHicks.com or at www.ParrishHicks.com.

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