KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/15/12 @ 112.92. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/18/12 @ 112.42. Downside Targets = 110.86 – 109.36.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 109.90. STR3MO = 108.20.
- December Brent Crude sank lower again on Friday, cracking through $110 briefly and closing at its lowest price in more than two weeks.
- Look for a lower opening on Monday as news of Iranian-US nuclear negotiations may dilute some of the fear premium that has been priced into this market as Brent may once again challenge the Short Term support zone of $106.50 – $107.18.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.31
- Projected Weekly Range: 5.35
- Projected Monthly Range: 12.02
WTI Crude Oil (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 92.80. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 92.39. Upside Targets = 94.91 – 95.83.
- Bearish EROVB (Extended Range Outside Vertical Bar) generated on Friday.
- December WTI Crude Oil started Friday off with a bang, making new highs for the week before looming concerns over lower global growth expectations crept back into the market.
- WTI should be able to find some initial support just below $90 on Monday but if it is unable to sustain a rally to help the market close above $91.73, look for WTI to fall back lower to retest the contract lows at $88.09.
- Projected Daily Range: 2.15
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.93
- Projected Monthly Range: 11.33
Natural Gas (November):
- Short Term Trend is bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/19/2012 @ 3.592. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/19/2012 @ 3.617. Upside Targets = 3.629 – 3.747.
- November Natural Gas moved to new 2012 highs on Friday at $3.647 as the market tried to follow through on Thursday’s bullish extension but failed to deliver a strong close, settling just above the day’s mid-range.
- Look for our maximum Intermediate term upside objective of $3.747 to keep a lid on the market as it continues to struggle to find strength in the resistance zone of $3.602 - $3.747.
- Projected Daily Range: .127
- Projected Weekly Range: .260
- Projected Monthly Range: .624
METALS
COMEX Gold (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/09/12 @ 1768.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/09/12 @ 1765.00. Downside Targets = 1704.30 – 1697.70.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1716.00. Downside Target over 180% achieved.
- December Gold continued to drop lower Friday, making new six-week lows on the current correction and closing at the lowest price since Sept. 6 after trading through the Short Term support level (1728) mentioned more than two weeks ago.
- Look for gold to generate new lows on Monday because of Friday’s confirmed bearish price action and then begin to garner strong support as it nears our Q4 downside objective of $1,697.70.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 45.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 95.30
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3061. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 10/19/12 @ 1.3030. Downside Targets = 1.2900 – 1.2878.
- The December Euro FX dropped lower for the second consecutive trading day on Friday after Wednesday’s gap higher opening was filled back to the downside because of continuing global economic concerns.
- Look for the euro to start out strong on Monday in a round of short covering but continue to struggle once it trades above 1.31 as it has for the past six weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .0072
- Projected Weekly Range: .0239
- Projected Monthly Range: .0600
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 10/17/12 @ 1451.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 10/17/12 @ 1457.00. Upside Targets = 1469.00 – 1482.25.
- Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish @ 1423.25. Possible TREND REVERSAL to bearish with a close @ 1423.25 or lower.
- The December S&Ps logged their worst one day drop in four months on Friday as the poor earnings reports continued to roll in from GE and McDonalds.
- Like other risk markets, look for the S&Ps to break through Friday’s low before finding some support at 1419.75 and then putting in an early morning short-covering rally to finish the session near 1430.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 39.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 74.50
